Miscalculation In Vaccine Spat Could Hit Trade In Other Areas

Earlier today, Mujtaba Rahman at the Eurasia Group tweeted: "Dominant view in Bxl is that Govt won't retaliate if EU implements an export ban. If we end up in a tit-for-tat trade war, it will be because of this EU miscalculation."

• However, yesterday The Sun's Harry Cole and Nick Gutteridge reported that privately, UK Cabinet ministers were stating that should the EU make the decision to block vaccine exports at the upcoming EUCO summit on Thursday then the UK would almost certainly retaliate with a block on the export of vaccines and vaccine ingredients to the EU, with an unnamed minister stating that "politically and morally it's a no brainer" and that "the British public would not put up [with no retaliation]".
• Given the already-elevated tensions between the UK and EU over the implementation of, and commitment to, the Northern Ireland protocol, there is the prospect that the vaccine spat could spill over into other areas of EU-UK trade.
• Notably, a number of member state leaders struggling with declining support and escalating public anger over slow vaccination rollouts and extended/newly introduced lockdowns could see 'punishing' the UK for both Brexit and its swift vaccine rollout as an easy way to boost domestic popularity.