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"Misery" Rising As Inflation Jumps (1/3)

GLOBAL

With high inflation across the developed world putting significant downward pressure on consumer confidence, it's worth looking at the "misery index" - as calculated by Y/Y inflation plus the unemployment rate.

  • Many countries are seeing the highest rates of "misery" in decades, if not their modern history (or at least for as far back as the data series go).
  • Most of the previous peaks were due to a combination of soaring inflation and high unemployment (late 70s/early 80s). A few more recent spikes were due largely to higher unemployment rates, with inflation remaining subdued (Eurozone crisis in the mid-2010s).
  • But the current jump is almost entirely due to soaring inflation, which is touching double-digits Y/Y in some countries even as unemployment remains subdued.
  • Some countries' misery indices have picked up in the past few months but remain well below historic highs, including China and Japan.

Source: MNI, National Statistics Agencies, OECD

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