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Misses Payments on Two Foreign Currency Bonds

RUSSIA
  • Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency debt for the first time since 1918 followed the expiration of two coupons on Sunday.
  • As a reminder, the country was given a 30-day grace period to pay a total of 100mil dollars in interests on bonds denominated in EUR and USD by May 27.
  • We have questioned in recent weeks the ‘Ruble recovery’ in addition to the sharp divergence we have observed for GDP 2022 forecast between some Russia officials (estimated a ‘mild’ 3% contraction) and some analysts, who are expecting the economy to contract by over 10% this year.
    • MNI ‘fair’ value of EURRUB prices in an exchange rate closer to 95; the chart shows the strong divergence between the ‘spot’ rate and the ‘fair’ value rate since the beginning of April.
  • German Chancellor Scholz reiterated in a recent interview that sanction will continue to weaken the Russian economy.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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