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Missile Fallout Looks Contained For Now

POLAND
  • The potential extended fallout surrounding the missile strike on Polish territory earlier this week looks to have been fully defused as NATO conclude that the strike was not intentional. This contains the incident’s fallout and was behind the full reversal lower in EUR/PLN across the Wednesday session.
  • Nonetheless, the risk premium remains in the background, with front-end PLN vols holding the week’s gains into Thursday morning.
  • As such, EURPLN is broadly flat on the week and trades within range of the weekly low at 4.6732. Price has recently cleared the 50-day EMA, with sights on 4.6530 next, the Aug 15 low and key support.

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