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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
THAILAND
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announces its decision later today and is widely expected to leave rates at 2.5%, which it considers to be “neutral”. Earlier finance minister Pichai said that the economy is “near crisis”, in line with consistent government pressure on the central bank to ease rates. BoT believes that current policy is “appropriate” to return inflation to target and achieve its growth forecast. It also wants to reduce the elevated household debt ratio.
- Q2 GDP growth improved to 2.3% from 1.6% and if Q3/Q4 grow at the same quarterly pace as Q2 then BoT’s 2.4% 2024 growth forecast should be achieved.
- Monthly indicators since the last meeting in June have been mixed. Q2 consumption slowed to 4% y/y but it faced unfavourable base effects. The tourism recovery and consumer confidence suggest that it should remain solid going forward. Sentiment is off its February high but remains positive at 57.7 but the economic assessment has weakened considerably to 51.3. Tourist arrivals are off their recent high but in June rose 22.3% y/y.
- Business indicators tell different stories. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI improved to 52.8 in July, highest since June 2023 and above the ASEAN aggregate. However, July business sentiment fell to 46.9 from 48.7 and orders books to 45.7 from 50.0. Manufacturing production growth is off its lows but June still fell 1.7% y/y, while Q2 capex contracted 6.2% y/y.
Thailand GDP y/y% & confidence indicators
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Thailand has benefited from stronger US growth with over 17% of Thai goods exports going there in 2023. It is less reliant on China than the rest of the region, which has helped its merchandise trade position this year. Chinese tourists are an important source of services income though. Q2 goods & services export volumes rose 4.8% y/y.
Thailand merchandise exports y/y% 3-mth ma
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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