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Mixed Business Sentiment But Further Price Cooling

US DATA
  • The Philly Fed miss (-9.9 from +6.2, cons. +2.3) was offset by the Empire beat (-1.5 from -31.3, cons. -12.9) in the first regional surveys for September, leaving little implied change from August as they continue the notably weaker run than ISM Manufacturing since July [first chart].
  • A large decline in current period prices paid in the Philly survey was notable, down -14pts to the lowest since Dec’20 “and near its long-run nonrecession average”, helping further support the prior decline in the six-month ahead measures to pre-pandemic levels for both the Empire and Philly surveys [second chart].
  • The price components help suggest there might be a cooling in price pressures ahead but the Fed will need to see these materialize in the CPI/PCE hard data.

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