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Mixed Monthly Data Prints Take Shine Off Q1 GDP Beat


The initial market reaction to the China data dump was risk on but gains have reversed somewhat now. The figures showed a Q1 GDP beat, +4.5% y/y, +4.0% expected, while Q4 growth was revised higher to 0.6% from flat initially reported. Q1 q/q growth was +2.2%, also above expectations of 2%.

  • Still, the March monthly activity data showed an uneven recovery, at least relative to expectations. IP was 3.9% (4% expected), while FAI printed at 5.1% ytd y/y (5.7% forecast), with property investment still a drag (-5.8%, versus -4.7% forecast). Construction starts were -19.2%. A slightly more positive was property sales were up 7.1% ytd y/y.
  • Retail sales printed firmer at +10.6% y/y, versus 7.5% forecast. This indicates the recovery is being led by the consumer/services side of the economy. The jobless rate ticked down to 5.3%, better than the 5.5% forecast.
  • The mixed nature of the data has likely limited the initial risk-on impulse from the market. In the FX space, AUD/USD is back to 0.6710/15, versus a post data high of 0.6721. USD/CNH got to 6.8648, but now sits back at 6.8770.
  • In the equity space it is a similar story, US futures sit slightly below highs, likewise for the HSI.

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