Mixed opinions on possible S&P downgrade......>

ITALY: Mixed opinions on possible S&P downgrade Friday, though consensus is 'no

change'. Rating currently BBB/negative. Outcome expected around 2100BST.

- Commerz: "doubt that the latest econ weakness sufficient for a downgrade"

- Citi: "Downside risks have clearly increased...However, on balance, we expect

no change because 1) the fiscal expansion has not been as bad as was feared by

the agency, 2) there is still a commitment to tightening in 2020, 3) there is

already a downward qualitative adjustment to model-based rating, 4) rating is

already lower than 2011."

- Raiffeisen (as reported by WSJ): "sees a 50% probability for a downgrade".

"While the economic component only has an around 30% weight in rating agencies'

methodology, Italy's fiscal outlook has significantly worsened recently"

- Unicredit: "expect S&P to wait for greater clarity concerning the political

outlook following the European Parliament election as well as further

indications of the government's fiscal strategy, which will be announced in the

autumn....but highlight that public debt/GDP might be on an upward trend in

contrast to the agency's previous expectation of stabilization".