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Mixed Payrolls, Largest Decline In Participation Since Sep'20

US DATA
  • Beat on the headline jobs number, though -39k net revisions prior 2 months. And unemp rate a little higher than expected and a little light on the avg hourly earnings (the latter compensated by revision though).
  • Big downtick in participation (from 62.4 to 62.2% vs cons 62.5%) whilst underemployment ticks up 0.1 to 7.0%.
  • That drop in participation is the first drop since May’21 and the largest since Sep’20. A reversal of the strong rise in prime-age participation was only partly to blame (0.1pp to 82.4%, still just 0.6pts below pre-pandemic levels).
  • The main move was the acceleration in 20-24 year olds leaving the labour force (-0.9pts on the month to 70.4%, -1.6pts from Dec'21) in a surprisingly large move considering job openings are so high. Participation of the 55+ category continued to fall, down another -0.2pts.
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