Mixed Performance From Rupiah After Palm Oil Softens

Spot USD/IDR has added 7 figs today and last sits at IDR14,995, well within a familiar range. Further gains above Jul 6 high of IDR15,024 would revive bullish momentum, bringing May 5, 2020 high of IDR15,138 into play. Bears look for a dip through Jul 11 low of IDR14,958 before setting their sights on Jun 27/21 lows of IDR14,794/14,784.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -9 figs at IDR15,051. Bears would be pleased by a sell-off past Jul 8 low of IDR14,966, while bulls keep an eye on Jul 13 high of IDR15,090.
• MYR/IDR last seen at IDR3,379, little changed on the day. Topside focus falls on Jul 1 high/round figure of IDR3,399/3,400. Bears are on the lookout for a breach of Jun 27 low of IDR3,358.
• SGD/IDR shot higher after a surprise policy tightening announced by the MAS. The rate sits +86 figs at IDR10,745, with bulls looking for a break above Jul 1 high of IDR10,754 before targeting Jun 30, 2021 high of IDR10,821. Bears set their sights on Jul 12 low of IDR10,636.
• Wednesday saw Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium widen to levels not seen in two years, topping out above 158bp.
• Palm oil futures fell to multi-month lows Wednesday as lingering recession worry weighed on demand outlook.
• Note that Indonesia's monthly trade data will be published on Friday. The next point of note in the local calendar is Bank Indonesia's monetary policy review, due in one week's high.