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Mixed Performance From Rupiah As Indonesia's 5-Year CDS Hits Cyclical High

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has added 21 figs so far and last deals at IDR14,994, with cautious mood music driving the move. Bulls look to take out Jul 6 high of IDR15,024 before setting their sights on May 5, 2020 high of IDR15,138.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -4 figs at IDR15,032. Topside focus falls on Jul 5 high of IDR15,084, while bears need a sell-off past Jul 8 low of IDR14,966 to get some reprieve.
  • MYR/IDR has shed ~4 figs as Malaysian markets re-open, it last trades at IDR3,381. A further retreat past the 100-DMA at IDR3,368 would suggest the rate is topping out, exposing Jun 27 low of IDR3,358. Bulls need a move through Jul 1 high of IDR3,399 to regain the upper hand.
  • SGD/IDR last seen at IDR10,659, down 26 figs on the day. The rate has trimmed some of its initial losses, after having a look below the recent range. Renewed weakness past the 50-DMA at IDR10,609 would please bears, while bulls look for a rebound above Jul 1 high of IDR10,754.
  • Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium, one of the indicators of rupiah vulnerability watched by Bank Indonesia, has soared to levels last seen in June 2020.
  • Focus turns to monthly trade data, due for release on Friday.
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