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Mixed Performances, BI Decision Tomorrow

ASIA FX
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USD/Asia pairs are mixed, CNH is softer, but remains within recent ranges. Upticks in USD/KRW continue to be sold, while USD/PHP is threatening to close below its simple 200-day MA. The high yielders have traded tight ranges. The focus tomorrow will largely rest on the BI decision, +25bps expected. South Korea's PPI also prints, along with Thailand trade figures.

  • USD/CNH moves towards 6.9600 remain supported, with the pair last at 6.9755/60, which is in line with a slightly firmer USD trend against the majors. The fixing bias remained skewed against depreciation pressures.
  • 1 month USD/KRW hasn't broken below yesterday's lows near 1280, but upticks remain sold by the market. The pair has had a 1288.6 to 1282.2 range for the session. Onshore equities have edged lower (last -0.15%), but the first 20-days of trade data for December could have been worse. The government's GDP growth projection for next year was pulled back to 1.6%, from 2.5% in June, while CPI was revised up to 3.5% from 3%.
  • USD/IDR has edged back down sub 15600, but remains within recent ranges. We sit close to the 20-day EMA (15611), while the 50-day comes in at 15537. Tomorrow delivers the big event risk for the week with the BI decision. Our expectation is for a 25bps hike, see the preview here, but risks are somewhat skewed to the upside (i.e. a 50bps move). A more hawkish surprise may be needed to shake out IDR's underperforming trend.
  • USD/PHP is up from earlier lows. We got to 55.075 before USD bids emerged. The pair is last around 55.15, with the simple 200-day MA at 55.128. The pair is already below the 200-day EMA though, which comes in at 55.364. The currency also remains the best performer within the Asian FX space in December to date, just shading the Korean won. Still hawkish central bank rhetoric from the BSP, (more hikes in the first part of 2023), coupled with year-end remittance inflows are likely supports.
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USD/Asia pairs are mixed, CNH is softer, but remains within recent ranges. Upticks in USD/KRW continue to be sold, while USD/PHP is threatening to close below its simple 200-day MA. The high yielders have traded tight ranges. The focus tomorrow will largely rest on the BI decision, +25bps expected. South Korea's PPI also prints, along with Thailand trade figures.

  • USD/CNH moves towards 6.9600 remain supported, with the pair last at 6.9755/60, which is in line with a slightly firmer USD trend against the majors. The fixing bias remained skewed against depreciation pressures.
  • 1 month USD/KRW hasn't broken below yesterday's lows near 1280, but upticks remain sold by the market. The pair has had a 1288.6 to 1282.2 range for the session. Onshore equities have edged lower (last -0.15%), but the first 20-days of trade data for December could have been worse. The government's GDP growth projection for next year was pulled back to 1.6%, from 2.5% in June, while CPI was revised up to 3.5% from 3%.
  • USD/IDR has edged back down sub 15600, but remains within recent ranges. We sit close to the 20-day EMA (15611), while the 50-day comes in at 15537. Tomorrow delivers the big event risk for the week with the BI decision. Our expectation is for a 25bps hike, see the preview here, but risks are somewhat skewed to the upside (i.e. a 50bps move). A more hawkish surprise may be needed to shake out IDR's underperforming trend.
  • USD/PHP is up from earlier lows. We got to 55.075 before USD bids emerged. The pair is last around 55.15, with the simple 200-day MA at 55.128. The pair is already below the 200-day EMA though, which comes in at 55.364. The currency also remains the best performer within the Asian FX space in December to date, just shading the Korean won. Still hawkish central bank rhetoric from the BSP, (more hikes in the first part of 2023), coupled with year-end remittance inflows are likely supports.