Mixed Trends, THB Outperforms PHP & IDR In SEA

USD/Asia pairs have traded in a mixed fashion today. CNH is slightly firmer, with the Jan-Feb trade data mixed, while the won has been relatively steady. The baht has outperformed, while PHP and IDR have underperformed. Still to come is Taiwan trade and inflation data. Tomorrow the data calendar is light within the region.

• After closing in NY around the 6.9500 level, USD/CNH sits modestly lower (last near 6.9435). Firmer HK equities have helped, but this hasn't aided mainland sentiment in this space. Jan-Feb trade figures showed a strong trade surplus, but import growth undershot expectations. The CNY fixing was slightly on the firmer side.
• 1 month USD/KRW has tracked recent ranges, finding selling interest closer to 1300 but not able to move sub 1295. Onshore equities are higher, but only modestly at +0.30%. BoK Governor Rhee reiterated that the authorities will curb FX volatility if needed.
• USD/IDR has remained on the front foot. The pair is +0.40% to the 15355/60 region. This is fresh highs back to mid-January. This comes despite a pull back in US real yields from recent highs. Some offset has come from higher core EU yields. Indonesian equities remain softer compared to the rest of SEA, with the JCI down 0.33% today.
• USD/PHP is firmer, the pair back in the 55.05/10 region. This is around 0.40% weaker in PHP terms versus yesterday's close. Some of this is catch up to USD strength post this close, with the 1 month USD/PHP NDF last at 55.10/15, little change for the session. Feb inflation data crossed earlier, coming in below expectations, 8.6% y/y, 8.9% was forecast and 8.7% was the prior print. Some easing in food and transport costs helped but inflation pressures remained firm elsewhere. Core prices were 7.8% y/y, the strongest pace since 1999. BSP Governor Medalla stated recently, a 9% handle on today's print could mean 50bps hike at the next BSP meeting, later in March. Given today's outcome was sub this level and towards the lower end of the BSP expectations (8.5% -9.3%), it tilts the risks towards a 25bps move.
• The baht is the best performer in the Asia FX today. USD/THB is down around 0.70%, with the pair sub 34.45. Thai markets were closed yesterday, so this may reflect some catch up, but the baht is outperforming broader currency trends in the region at the margin, i.e. relative to the ADXY, which has shown a steady trend this week in large part due to the USD/CNY rebound. On the downside the 20-day EMA isn't too far away at 34.40. We haven't been sub this support point since early Feb. Equities have been aided by the downside CPI miss. Headline fell -0.12% m/m, which left the y/y pace at 3.79%, versus 4.10% expected and 5.02% prior. Core slipped to 1.93% (2.00% forecast), which is back sub the mid point the BoT's target band.