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Mkts Discount More Hawkish Fed-Speak

US TSYS SUMMARY
Inside range session with Tsys trading modestly weaker after the bell, yield curves marginally mixed, equities mostly firmer (ESU1 +4.0 at 4240.0). Decent volumes on two-way positioning flow ahead Thursday's heavy economic data release schedule and continued Fed-speak.
  • Hawkish rhetoric returns with side of salt: after Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic called for two hikes in 2022 and two more in 2023 earlier today, Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan sees first rate hike in 2022 followed soon after by taper. Why the salt? Markets discounted either slow to react to Kaplan comments after the bell, or are seriously discounting the message as rates hold off session lows.
  • Other political headlines also discounted: Sens' Romney and Tester see infrastructure deal as soon as today.
  • The $61B 5Y note (91282CCJ8) auction tailed slightly: .02bp: high yield of 0.904% vs. 0.902% WI. Bid-to-cover 2.36x just over 5 month average of 2.35x. Indirects take-up declines to 57.62% vs. last month's 64.35% (prior high of 66.22% in August 2020); direct bidder take-up surged to 18.09% vs. 14.87% last month and 5M avg of 15.48%; primary dealer take-up: 24.29% just shy of the 5-month average of 24.88%.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 3.8bps at 0.2661%, 5-Yr is up 2.8bps at 0.8829%, 10-Yr is up 2.7bps at 1.4903%, and 30-Yr is up 3bps at 2.1158%.

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