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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Overnight, political betting markets have recorded a sharp increase in the implied probability of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz being selected as Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' running mate. According to electionbettingodds.com, which compiles data from Betfair, Smarkets, Polymarket, and PredictIt, Walz has a 41.5% implied probability of being named the Democratic VP candidate, behind only Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 54.1%.
- The spike in betting market activity on 5 August may have been due to a video circulated on social media showing several black SUVs at Walz's Minnesota residence. A similar increase in security was seen around Republican VP candidate JD Vance before his selection as former President Donald Trump's running mate.
- However, Tyler Pager at WaPo posted on X that he had received confirmation that the vehicles were part of Walz's home state security detail and not a sign that Harris had already picked him.
- As we noted on 5 August (see 'US: Shapiro Firms As Harris Veep Favourite', 1749BST), "Although conventional wisdom suggests that a vice-presidential selection is rarely consequential to a presidential election outcome, Shapiro's name on the ticket could materially benefit Harris in Pennsylvania, a state which is most likely to be the “tipping-point state” that determines the result."
Chart 1. Political Betting Market Implied Probability of Democratic Party VP Candidate, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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