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MNI 5 THINGS:Canada Feb Employment Seen Pausing;Eyes on Energy 

By Yali N'Diaye        
     OTTAWA (MNI) - Statistics Canada will release the February Labor Force
Survey Friday. Ahead of the releases, we highlight five themes for particular
attention:           
     - Analysts in a MNI survey expect employment to remain unchanged in
February after a stronger-than-expected 66,800 gain in January, which was split
between part-time and full-time positions. The unemployment rate is expected to
tick down to 5.7% from 5.8%.
     - Average weekly wage growth for permanent workers picked up to 1.8%
year-over-year in January from 1.5% in December. Wage growth for that category
had been slowing down since reaching a peak at 3.9% in May 2018, falling below
3% in the summer. The growth rate has been below 2% since October 2018. Wage
growth for all workers was up 2.0% year-over-year in January, the same as in
December. An acceleration in earnings in February would support the Bank of
Canada's case for a wage pickup finally materializing. 
     - Focus should also be on sector distribution to help assess the impact of
developments in energy, and see whether signs of a stabilization are emerging
given the recent recovery in oil prices. In January, employment in the natural
resources sector fell 4,600 after increasing by 3,000 in December. Employment
gains were concentrated in services in January, with 99,200 jobs added, while
good-producing industries shed 32,300 jobs. 
     - Regional data will also provide insight as to the impact of the energy
sector. It will be worth keeping an eye on trends in the oil rich provinces of
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. 
     - The central bank continues to eye youth employment, which increased
52,800 in January, although the unemployment rate rose to 11.2% from 11.1%. But
this was accompanied by a higher participation rate. A sustained improvement in
youth employment would be a welcome sign for the BOC.
--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MACDS$,M$C$$$]
Data StoriesImpactDataPolicy NewsCanadaAPACChina Bank of Canada Market NewsRegionNorth America
Data StoriesImpactDataPolicy NewsCanadaAPACChina Bank of Canada Market NewsRegionNorth America
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