MNI 5 Things: China May Industrial Output Seen Robust XXX

     BEIJING (MNI) - China's May economic data will be released on Thursday

morning. Ahead of the release, we outline five themes warranting particular

attention.

     - Industrial output is expected to rise 6.8% y/y in May according to the

median of MNI survey, maintaining a fast growth. It is predicted to be lower

than 7.0% y/y in April, while higher than 6.5% in May 2017. Supporting signs

include high export and import growths in May and strong production showed by

the PMI data.

     - Market expected fixed-asset investment to increase 6.9% y/y during

Jan-May, slightly below 7.0% Jan-Apr and lower than 8.6% in same period last

year. Multiple measures have been taken to encourage private sector's

investment, which would likely result in its strong growth. 

     - Property investment growth would likely remain relatively fast as land

purchasing was reported to be strong. However, the growth of housing starts

decelerated to 7.3% y/y during Jan-Apr period from 9.7% in Jan-Mar, and whether

the growth will pickup remains to be seen.

     - Analysts expected retail sales growth to quicken to 9.5% y/y in May from

9.4% in April. Retail sales may grow at a relatively slow pace, as the rapid

rising leverage ratio of household sector slows consumption.

     - Surveyed urban unemployment rate may be close to that of April, as

industrial output is likely to remain strong. The figure was 4.9% in April,

lower than 5.1% recorded in March, and lower than 5.0% last April. If surveyed

urban unemployment rate rises while industrial output remains strong, that could

indicate more difficulties faced by small companies.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 10 85325998; email: he.wei@marketnews.com

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 10 8532 5998; email: william.bi@mni-news.com

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