MNI 5 THINGS: China New Home Price Growth Cools Down in Jan

By Iris Ouyang

     BEIJING (MNI) - The following are five things we have learnt from the

70-city housing price data released by China National Bureau of Statistics on

Saturday:

     1) New home price growth, excluding subsidised housing, decelerated on both

a yearly and monthly basis. Price on average rose 0.3% month-on-month, lower

than the 0.5% growth in December. It grew 5.4% year-over-year in January, 0.4

percentage point lower than December. The slowing of price growth shows property

controls implemented by the Chinese government have continued to take effect and

curb price growth.

     2) Price growth slowed across all city tiers. In Tier-1 cities, new house

price growth entered negative territory for the first time in 31 months -

dipping 0.2% m/m and 0.3% y/y, according to E-house Real Estate Research

Institute. Calculations from Tospur Consultancy, a real estate consultancy based

in Shanghai, also showed that y/y price growth decelerated by 0.2 percentage

points in Tier-2 cities, and by 0.4 percentage points in Tier-3 cities. 

     3) The property market cooled down in 15 hotspot cities ('top cities') that

the NBS monitored. According to MNI calculations, price growth in these cities

did not change in January on a monthly basis, but it dipped 0.5% on an annual

basis. 

     Table: China Residential Property Prices - Average Price Increases

Average

Price Chg           De

%              Jan   c  Nov  Oct   Sep   Aug   Jul   Jun   May   Apr   Mar   Feb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15-Top     M/       0.

cities      M    0   1  0.0  0.0  -0.2  -0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3  -0.1

           Y/  -0.  0.  -0.

            Y    5   0    2  0.3   2.1   6.9  11.1  13.6  16.2  19.0  22.3  25.2

70-Large

and

medium     M/       0.

Cities      M  0.3   5  0.4  0.3   0.2   0.2   0.5   0.7   0.8   0.7   0.7   0.3

           Y/       5.

            Y  5.4   8  5.5  5.7   6.5   8.2   9.3   9.6   9.7   9.9  10.3  10.6

     Source: MNI - MNI Calculation from National Bureau of Statistics of China

     4) Cities that witnessed highest m/m price growth include Dalian (+1.6%),

Kunming (+1.4%) and Xiangyang (+1.2%). Year-on-year price growth was fastest in

Harbin (+11.5%), Shenyang (+11.4%) and Guiyang(+11.2). These cities could see

some policy tightening later this year, as the government maintains tight

control on the property sector to curb a possible property bubble. 

     5) Cities that previously experienced some of the most rapid price growths

are expected to continue to be under high policy pressure. These include

Shenzhen (-3.4%), Wuxi (-2.7%) and Fuzhou (-2.3%). Their new home price growth

dipped the biggest y/y, reflecting the effects of targeted regulation. 

     Table: China Residential Property Prices - No. of Cities where Prices are

Rsing/Falling

No. Cities

Rising/Falli       Ja  De

ng                  n   c  Nov  Oct  Sep  Aug  Jul  Jun  May  Apr  Mar  Feb  Jan

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15-Top        Ris

cities M/M      e   5   8    4    3    0    0    5    6    6    6    9    3    1

              Fal

                l   7   4    7    9   11   12    7    5    6    5    6   10   11

              Net

              Ris

                e  -2   4   -3   -6  -11  -12   -2    1    0    1    3   -7  -10

70-Large and

medium        Ris

Cities M/M      e  52  57   50   50   44   46   56   60   56   58   62   56   45

              Fal

                l  13   7   10   14   18   18    9    6    9    8    8   12   20

              Net

              Ris

                e  39  50   40   36   26   28   47   54   47   50   54   44   25

15-Top        Ris

cities Y/Y      e   4   6    4    5   12   13   15   15   15   15   15   15   15

              Fal

                l  11   9   11   10    3    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0

              Net

              Ris

                e  -7  -3   -7   -5    9   11   15   15   15   15   15   15   15

70-Large and

medium        Ris

Cities Y/Y      e  59  61   59   60   67   68   70   70   69   69   68   67   66

              Fal

                l  11   9   11   10    3    2    0    0    1    1    2    3    4

              Net

              Ris

                e  48  52   48   50   64   66   70   70   68   68   66   64   62

     Source: MNI - MNI Calculation from National Bureau of Statistics of China

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86-10-8532-5998; email: beijing@marketnews.com

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