MNI 5 THINGS: China Q3 Economy Continues Downward Trend

     BEIJING (MNI) - China's Q3 GDP continues on its ongoing downward trend.

Industrial output fell to its lowest level this year, with fixed-asset

investment (FAI) rebounding, according to data released by China's National

Bureau of Statistics. Here are five things MNI highlights from the data:

     - Q3 GDP growth came in at 6.5% y/y, slightly lower than the median of 6.6%

forecast polled by an MNI survey, and slowing down from 6.7% in Q2 and 6.8% in

Q1. For the first three quarters, the GDP grew at a rate of 6.7%, recording a

total value of CNY65.0899 trillion.

     - Industrial output growth came in at 5.8% y/y in September, lower than the

6.1% recorded in August and the 6.0% predicted by MNI analysts, and declining to

its lowest level since October 2015 (when it came in at 5.6%). The ytd data, at

6.4% y/y, was down 0.3 percentage points from the first half this year.

     - FAI grew 5.4% in the January-September period, higher than the 5.3%

median in an MNI survey, recovering from the historical low of 5.3% in Jan-Aug

period (since the data was first compiled in 1992). Property investment cooled

down in September, mainly due to a series of tightening policies on the market.

Property investment gained 9.9% in the first nine months of 2018, slowing down

from the 10.1% gain in the first eight months.

     - Retail sales growth rebounded to 9.2% y/y in September, rising from the

9.0% growth reported in August, and beating the median of 9.1% forecast in an

MNI survey. The robust data were to a large extent sustained by the fast growth

in upgraded consumption. From January to September, the growth was recorded at

9.3% y/y.

     - The surveyed unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in September, 0.1 percentage

point lower on a m/m basis, continuing its deceleration from over recent three

months. The surveyed unemployment rate in the 31 big cities came in even lower,

at 4.7%.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: wanxia.lin@marketnews.com

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86-10-8532-5998; email: beijing@marketnews.com

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