MNI 5 THINGS. Currency Boost To Australia October Trade Data

--Data Released Thursday Dec 6

By Lachlan Colquhoun

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's Trade Balance data for October will be released

Thursday, with analysts and economist expecting another surplus, with the

currency a tailwind for the export sector.   

     Here are five factors to look for in the data to be released by the

Australian Bureau of Statistics:

     --Strong exports expected to deliver another surplus. The trade surplus has

widened in recent months as exports have grown, with a weaker currency and

strong liquid natural gas (LNG) exports driving the result. The September

surplus was A$3.02 billion, coming after a surplus of A$2.3 billion in August. 

     --Weaker imports. While exports have strengthened, imports have flattened

with the import of capital goods down 9% in September. With the aussie dollar

trading at around the A$0.7200 level for much of the second half of the year,

the currency differential is balanced in favour of exports.  

     LNG exports power on. LNG exports have come strongly on stream over the

last 12 months. The ABS classifies LNG in a category of mineral fuels, which has

almost doubled in export volume the last 12 months to monthly exports of A$4.9

billion to September. Industry analysts, however, believe that the Australian

LNG "boom" may have peaked, with new competition from production in the U.S. and

Qatar set to impact.

     Iron ore and coal still key. These two commodities comprised 35% of

Australian exports in September. Prices for both are volatile and, currently,

under pressure, most particularly from falling Chinese demand.

     Exports supporting GDP. In a surprise for the market, Australia's

annualised GDP fell to 2.8% in the September quarter, against 3.4% in Q2 and

analyst expectations of 3.3% growth. Exports contributed 0.3 percentage points

to Q3 GDP after adding 0.1% in Q2, underlining the economy's dependence on

trade.  

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MALDS$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$]