MNI 5 Things: Look For Additional Data In Australia's Q2 Capex

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) -  - The Australia Bureau of Statistics will publish Private

New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure data for the second quarter at

1130 hours local time (0130 hours GMT). Below are the some of the things we

would be looking for:

     --For the first time the ABS will issue capex data for education and

training, and healthcare and social assistance. This is experimental estimates

but important to form a view of capex in the economy. ABS will present quarterly

data from September 2017 up to and including June quarter 2018. 

     --The RBA has long pointed out the incompleteness of capex data because it

excludes certain industries and doesn't cover certain types of investment such

as software, and research and development which according to its liaison has

been a focus for many firms recently.

     --MNI median consensus for third estimate for 2018-19 capex is A$102.0

billion. This is significantly higher than estimate two of A$87.7 billion. The

range of estimates is from A$94 billion to A$105.5 billion. So there's a

downside risk to the outcome.

     --Westpac economists consider A$102 billion as a "broadly neutral"

estimate, with A$97 billion as "softer" and A$107 billion as stronger. CBA

economists, on the other hand, view an outcome larger than A$97 billon as an

upgrade (their own forecast is A$97 billion).

     --Q2 capex is expected to rise 0.7% q/q. Range is +0.3% (Westpac) to +1.3%

(JP Morgan).

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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