**MNI 5 Things: March US Retail Sales Sees 0.6% Gain>

--5 Things We Learned From The March Retail Sales Data

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the 

March retail sales report from the Commerce Department released 

Monday:               

     - March retail sales were up 0.6% in the month, well above the 0.3% 

rise expected by analysts, and even further above the 0.2% gain expected 

by the whisper number. Motor vehicle sales surged in the month and sales 

outside of motor vehicles were also stronger than expected. The data 

point to a stronger PCE number for the first quarter than originally 

thought. 

     - Excluding the 2.0% gain in motor vehicle sales, retail sales ex 

motor vehicles were up 0.2%, stronger than the 0.1% rise expected. 

Analysts have had no clear tendency to either over or understimate March 

headline retail sales, however analysts have shown a tendency to 

overestimate March retail sales excluding motor vehicles, so today's 

data deviate from that trend. Both February headline and ex-motor 

vehicle sales were unrevised at a 0.1% decline and a 0.2% rise, 

respectively. January headline sales, however, were revised down further 

to a 0.2% decline from the 0.1% decrease previously reported. 

     - March sales rose 0.3% ex. motor vehicle and gas, and were up 0.4% 

in the "control" group (ex auto, building materials, gas and food 

services), slightly softer than the headline figure but still suggesting 

stronger consumption for the month, and slightly offsetting the weakness 

for the quarter. This unexpected gain could be due to tax refunds 

fueling purchases. 

     - As expected, gas station sales fell, registering a 0.3% drop in 

the month (retail sales ex. gas +0.6%) and building materials fell by 

0.6%, while food services were up 0.4%. The other categories were mixed, 

with gains in furniture, food and beverage stores, health and personal 

care stores, general merchandise stores, and nonstore retailers, helping 

to offset the declines in clothing, sporting goods, and miscellaneous 

store retailers. 

     - At an annualized rate, March total sales were up 0.8% for 1Q vs 

4Q average and were up 2.7% ex motor vehicles and up 1.0% ex autos, 

building materials, gas, and food services. While 1Q PCE should still 

show its usual softness respective to 4Q, these figures suggest that PCE 

may not be as slow as analysts initially feared.

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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