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Free AccessMNI 5 THINGS. NZ Q4 GDP Growth Seen Higher Q/Q, Y/Y Could Slow
By Lachlan Colquhoun
SYDNEY (MNI) - New Zealand GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2018 will be
released Thursday. Here are five things to look for in the release from
Statistics NZ.
Q/Q result expected to bounce back, Y/Y uncertain.
GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018 was a disappointing 0.3%, delivering an
annualised 2.6%. While a Q4 result of 0.6% is expected, some analysts are
forecasting a lower result which, though higher than Q3, could deliver a lower
Y/Y number.
Treasury Forecast.
The NZ Treasury is expecting Q4 growth of 0.6%, which would deliver annualised
growth of 2.7%, down from 3.0% annualised seen in Q4 and a significant decline
from the 3.9% posted in 2016.
Implications for RBNZ policy.
A low growth figure tomorrow would confirm the economy is flatlining and suggest
that the RBNZ estimate of 3.0% growth for 2019 is overly optimistic, despite a
decade low unemployment rate of 3.9%. The RBNZ's monetary policy is currently
balanced, but a slowing economy increases the chance of a rate cut in the longer
term, perhaps in 2020.
Economists' consensus sees slowdown by 2021.
A quarterly survey of economists at the NZ Institute of Economic Research has
revised longer term growth downwards. The survey forecasts GDP peaking at 2.9%
for the year to March 2021 before moderating to 2.5% in the following year.
Wages outlook.
Like its counterpart in Australia, the RBNZ is focussing on wages growth to
drive consumption and growth. A disappointing result would suggest that the
economy is encountering headwinds which will be reflected in the labour market
later this year.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MANDS$,MAUDR$,MAUDS$,MAUPR$,M$A$$$,M$N$$$,M$U$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.