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Free Access**MNI 5 Things: US April Unemp Rate Drops To 3.9%; Jobs +164k>
--5 Things We Learned From The April Employment Data
By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire and Holly Stokes
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the
April employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday:
- The payrolls data were a mixed bag, with payrolls growth and
hourly earning growth softer than expected following a downward revision
to the previous month, but the unemployment rate dipped to 3.9%, the
lowest level since December of 2000. Despite this banner decline in
unemployment, markets will likely be happy that payrolls growth and wage
inflation are not running away from the Fed.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 164,000, below the 185,000 gain
expected. The whisper number was for a 183,000 gain. Likewise, private
payrolls rose 168,000, compared with a 193,000 gain expected. An MNI
analysis showed a tendency of analysts to understimate payrolls in
April, with low misses in 7 of the last 10 years, but the forecast
risk has been more balanced in recent years.
- Hourly earnings rose 0.1% in the month (+0.149% unadjusted) after
a downward revised 0.2% gain in March, so the year/year rate stayed at
2.6% after rounding. Analysts had expected hourly earnings to rise 0.2%
in the month following a 0.3% gain in March, so this data suggests some
softness, though April's gain was very close to being rounded up to
0.2%. Average weekly hours stayed at 34.5, so along with the payrolls
gain, aggregate weekly hours rose by 0.1%.
- The unemployment rate's dip of 0.2% to 3.9% was facilitated by a
decline in the participation rate to 62.8% from 62.9% in March. The
unrounded rate was 3.929% for the current month's unemployment rate.
Household employment was roughly flat, while unemployed plunged, so the
labor force contracted. The alternate U-6 Rate fell to 7.8% from 8.0% in
March.
- Payrolls in February and March were revised up by a net 30,000,
reflecting a small downward revision to February and an upward revision
to March. For April, there were solid gains for professional services
(+54k), construction (+17k), manufacturing (+24k), and health care
(+29k), but weakness from retail (+2k) and wholesale (-10k).
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.