-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY28.8 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI 5 THINGS: US Core PCE Prices Seen +0.2%; No Forecast Risk
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The US Personal Income and Outlays for December 2018 and
Personal Income for January 2019 report will be released on Friday. It will
include both December and January data for personal income, but the nominal and
real PCE, as well as price indices, will all be presented for December only.
The median forecast among analysts in an MNI survey calls for a 0.2 rise in
the core PCE price index and a 0.3% gain in personal income. Analysts are
expecting a 0.1% decline in current dollar PCE while the Bloomberg consensus is
calling for a 0.2% decline. Both estimates are driven by the 1.7% decline in
December control group retail sales.
Ahead of the release, we outline five themes for particular attention:
--CORE PRICES WELL FORECASTED
Over the last year, analysts in an MNI survey have been on target eight
times. Their four misses, averaging just 0.1pp, are an even split between
overestimates and underestimates. Based on this history, it is likely that
analysts' forecast for a 0.2% gain in core PCE will be correct, and if they do
happen to miss, it will be by a very small amount.
--ONLY JANUARY INCOME
Due to the interruption of the Department of Commerce's data gathering
caused by the government shutdown in January, only income data will be on
schedule. All other included data will be for December only. The tentative
release date for the rest of the January data is March 1st, but it is not clear
whether that report will include February data as well, or if the February data
will also be delayed. January retail sales, which could provide some clues as to
how the personal expenditure indicators fared in January, is scheduled to be
released on March 11.
--PCE PRICES HIT BY ENERGY
In December, the Consumer Price Index for energy, which correlates well
with the PCE price index for energy services, posted a 2.6% decline. Because
these two indicators tend to move in the same direction, this poses a downside
risk for headline PCE prices. Though these indices typically match each other
quite well, in the last few months of 2018, they matched almost perfectly,
suggesting that CPI energy will be a useful predictor for the PCE price index in
December
--SOLID PAYROLLS IMPACT
Due to a backlog of data, December personal income data will be released
alongside January's data. Analysts are expecting personal income to rise by 0.3%
in January after a predicted 0.4% gain in December. December's employment
report, which included a private payrolls gain of 206,000, a 0.4% increase in
average hourly earnings, and an uptick in average weekly hours from 34.4 to
34.5, is a strong positive for wages and salaries growth in December.
Average hourly earnings, rising just 0.1% in January's employment report,
point to slightly stronger wage and salary growth in January. Combined with a
private payrolls surge of 296,000 and no change in hours worked, this suggests
analysts' 0.3% forecast for personal income growth is in line with January's
employment report.
--DECEMBER RETAIL SALES IMPACT
The very weak retail sales data in December suggest a decline for nominal
PCE. Although retail sales is not the only determinant of the PCE number, the
two series are notably correlated. Falling energy prices were partially
responsible for the weak December sales report, but most other categories also
declined sharply. Analysts do differ on the impact of the sales data on PCE,
with an unusually wide range indicating that someone will be surprised.
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUPR$,M$U$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.