**MNI 5 THINGS: US September Paryolls +134k; Unemp Rate 3.7%>

--5 Things We Learned From The September Employment Data

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the 

September employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Friday: 

     - The employment data were mixed. Payrolls growth was much softer 

than expected with a 134,000 gain, but the unemployment rate dipped to 

3.7%. Hourly earnings posted a 0.3% gain after August's downward revised 

0.3% rise, but the year/year rate slipped to 2.8% from 2.9% on base 

effects. BLS said survey reporting was in normal ranges, but they could 

not quantify the exact hurricane effects 

     - The nonfarm payrolls gain was well below the 188,000 gain 

expected. The whisper number was for a 202,000 gain, so a much larger 

surprise to the downside. Likewise, private payrolls rose 121,000, 

compared with a 185,000 gain expected. An MNI analysis showed analysts 

have a tendency to overestimate payrolls in September, including each of 

the last three years, so today's data maintains that trend. 

     - The unemployment rate fell sharply even as the participation rate 

was unchanged at 62.7%. The unrounded unemployment rate was 3.683%, on 

the low side of 3.7%. The rates for both men over 20 and women over 20 

fell in the month. Household employment was up 420,000, rebounding from 

a sharp decline in the previous month, while the unemployed level fell 

by 270,000, so the labor force rose by 150,000. The alternate U-6 Rate 

ticked up to 7.5% from 7.4% in August.     

     - Hourly earnings were up 0.3% in the month (+0.295% unrounded), as 

expected after a downward revised 0.3% gain in August. The year/year 

rate slipped to 2.8% due to base effects as September 2017 hourly 

earnings rose 0.5% on hurricane effects, before falling by 0.2% in the 

following month. As a result, the year/year rate for earnings is likely 

to rebound next month. 

     - Payrolls in July and August were revised up by a net 87,000, 

reflecting upward revisions to both months. Private jobs were up 

121,000, much lower than the 182,000 gain expected. Within payrolls, 

there were solid gains for construction (+23k), manufacturing (+18k) and 

professional and business services (+54k), but retail jobs fell by 

20,000. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]