MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Dwelling Approvals Dn; Trend Negative

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Dwelling approvals in Australia fell more than expected in

April, pushing trend into negative for the first time since December 2016.

     Despite the fall, dwelling investment pipeline remains elevated and is

expected to continue to support a high level of dwelling investment which is in

line with the Reserve Bank's view.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Wednesday showed

dwelling approvals fell 5.0% m/m in March, worse than MNI median forecast for a

3.0% fall.

     The latest fall was due to a 11.5% m/m fall in multi-units approvals mainly

in Victoria which offset the small 0.1% rise in house approvals.

     In trend terms, approvals fell 0.1% m/m in April following no change in the

two months prior. The last time approvals fell in trend terms was in December

2016 when it declined 1.1% m/m.

     In value terms, total buildings approved fell for the second straight

month, down 4.2% m/m in April after a 1.1% fall in March. The declines in each

of the two months were mainly on account of fall in non-residential building

approvals. In April, residential building approvals also recorded a decrease of

4.3%.

     From building approvals data for April published by the Australian Bureau

of Statistics on Thursday:

                                             April                         March

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              (M/M% unless stated;          (M/M% unless stated;

                              seasonally adjusted)          seasonally adjusted)

Dwelling Units

Approved                                      -5.0       +3.5(revised from +2.6)

MNI Median                                    -3.0

Dwelling Units

Approved (Trend)                              -0.1       0.0 (revised from +0.2)

Dwelling Units

Approved Y/Y                                  +1.9   +14.5(last month's release)

Private Houses                                +0.1                          +1.6

Private Units

Excluding Houses                             -11.5                          +7.6

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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