MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Trade, House Approvals Beat Forecasts

--Both Data Supportive of RBA Staying on Hold for Longer

--LNG Exports Down For Third Straight Month

     SYDNEY (MNI) -  - Dwelling approvals unexpectedly rose in September,

leading to a slight acceleration in trend and pointing to housing construction

being supportive of growth for longer than expected.

     The international trade data also showed a larger-than-expected surplus in

September. 

     Both data, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Thursday,

support an on-hold-for-longer monetary policy stance by the Reserve Bank of

Australia.

     Dwelling approvals rose 1.5% m/m in September due to a 0.6% rise in private

house approvals and a 2.6% rise in multi-unit approvals. The increase led to

acceleration in trend to 1.8% m/m in September from 1.4% in August and compares

with a 0.4% fall in January this year. 

     The trend for house approvals has been positive for seven months in a row

and the trend for multi-units has been up for four straight months.

     In value terms, total buildings approved rose 8.3% m/m in September,

rebounding from declines the previous two months. The value of residential

building approvals rose 0.1% while the value of non-residential building

approvals rose 22.4%.

     The rise in approvals in housing and non-residential construction comes on

top of infrastructure spending by the government. Taken together, they indicate

construction will be among the main drivers of economic growth in the period

ahead.

     In other data, the international trade surplus widened sharply in September

due mainly to a 3% rise in exports due to a 8% rise in metal ores and minerals

shipments. 

     Imports were flat m/m, rising just A$52 million as a 2% rise in consumption

imports and a 1% increase in capital goods were offset by a 14% fall in

non-monetary gold imports. 

     In original terms, liquefied natural gas exports was the main

disappointment, falling for the third straight month as both volumes and unit

value fell for the second straight month. In the latest month, volumes fell 19%

and unit values dropped 1%. 

     Semi-soft coal exports were down 20% as quantities fell 17% and unit values

fell 4%. Iron ore lump exports was the outperformer, rising 18% due to a 10%

rise in quantities and a 7% rise in unit values. 

     From building-approvals data for September published by the Australian

Bureau of Statistics on Thursday:

                                         September                        August

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              (M/M% unless stated;          (M/M% unless stated;

                              seasonally adjusted)          seasonally adjusted)

Dwelling Units

Approved                                      +1.5      +0.1 (revised from +0.4)

MNI Median               -1.7 (range -7.0 to +2.0)

Dwelling Units

Approved (Trend)                              +1.8                          +1.4

Dwelling Units

Approved Y/Y                                  +0.2   -15.5(last month's release)

Private Houses                                +0.6                          -0.8

Private Units

Excluding Houses                              +2.6                          +4.1

     Below is table on International-trade data for September:

                                      September                           August

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                        (in A$)                          (in A$)

                            Seasonally Adjusted              Seasonally Adjusted

Trade                                                +873 mln (revised from +989

Balance                               +1.75 bln                             mln)

                +1.0 bln (range +230 mln to 1.6

MNI Median                                 bln)

Exports                               32.96 bln                        32.03 bln

Imports                               31.22 bln                        31.16 bln

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MALDA$,MALDS$,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]