/ MNI ANALYSIS: July Fed Cut Seen As Analysts...>

FED: / MNI ANALYSIS: July Fed Cut Seen As Analysts Go Dovish

- MNI`s review of 27 sell-side analysts` notes over the past month shows a

gradual move toward expectations of 50-75bps in Fed rate cuts in 2019 (22 of 27

analysts), beginning with a 25bps cut, more or less in line with market pricing.

- Only two analysts are not forecasting a July cut (CIBC, Scotiabank), while

only two are forecasting a 50bps July cut (UBS, Morgan Stanley). Notably, the

latter two reiterated their forecasts yesterday (Jul 10).

- No forecasters have become more hawkish over the past month, with 15 of 27

becoming more dovish since the June FOMC meeting. A couple (SEB, BofAML) went

more dovish after Powell`s Jul 10 testimony.

- The most aggressive easing forecasts are from Unicredit, TD and Rabobank, who

see 6-7 cuts ahead.

- The most hawkish is Scotiabank, which to our knowledge continues to forecast

no change to the Funds rate.

- For more see Analysis email / PDF link below, or contact us.

https://emedia.marketnews.com/FedJul2019RateOutlook.pdf