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SWISS: MNI Analysis shows that it's too soon to say the CHF has bottomed:
-CFTC data shows traders hold the largest net short CHF position since 2007 and
the proximity to the Vollgeld monetary reform vote on June 10th will cap any
-The shift in positioning has prompted MNI's FX Positioning Indicator for the
CHF to fall to the lowest level in years.
-The 'Vollgeld' vote should keep any near-term CHF rallies capped. The
macroeconomic impacts of the Vollgeld reforms (the conversion of domestic bank
deposits into liabilities with the central bank) are incredibly unclear and
dependent on the government/central bank response. They would inevitably mean
material changes to the Swiss economy, best summarised by the central bank's
President Jordan: "The initiative raises unrealistic expectations... it is an
unnecessary and dangerous experiment". Opinion polling leaves little chance of
an overhaul of the monetary system, but many traders will have learnt the hard
way not to over-trust surveys in recent years and, as a result, CHF rallies may
be short-lived. See MNI Analysis Email for full details.