MNI ANALYSIS: US August Retail Sales Fall 0.2%, July Rev Down>

--August Sales Up 0.2% Ex. Motor Vehicles; Ex. MV, Gas, Bldg Mat -0.1%

--Commerce: Cannot Separate Out Hurricane Impact From National Data

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of retail sales fell 0.2% in August, 

below of expectations for a 0.1% gain, and following a downward revised 

0.3% gain in July, data released by the Commerce Department Friday 

morning shows. 

     Total retail sales were originally reported up 0.6% in July. June 

sales were revised down to a 0.1% decline from the 0.3% gain originally 

reported. 

     August retail sales were up 0.2% excluding the motor vehicle 

component, which posted a 1.6% decline in the month after a flat reading 

in the previous month. Retail sales ex. motor vehicles rose 0.4% in 

July, a downward revision from the previously reported 0.5% gain 

     Excluding motor vehicles, gasoline, and building materials, "core" 

retail sales were down 0.1%. And for good measure, excluding food 

services as well as those three measures, retail sales were down 0.2%. 

     The Commerce Department said they cannot isolate the impact of the 

hurricanes from the national data, adding they survey responses were 

within normal ranges nationally, though a little behind in the 

hurricane-impacted regions. Commerce also said that it did not alter any 

of its estimation methods. 

     Still, the impact of Hurricane Harvey can be seen in several retail 

categories and will likely be worse in September when the impact of 

Hurricane Irma will also appear. 

     The data suggest that third quarter consumption was still above the 

second quarter average, but the outlook is less optimistic as with the 

original July data and is not likely to improve with the September data. 

     Incorporating the August decline and the downward revisions to June 

and July, third quarter retail sales are up 0.6% at an annual rate from 

the second quarter average. At the same time, sales excluding motor 

vehicles were up 1.0% from the second quarter, while sales excluding 

motor vehicles, gas and building materials were up 1.3%, both including 

and excluding food services. 

     Building materials sales fell 0.5% in August following a 0.9% gain 

in July. Gasoline store sales, meanwhile, rose 2.5% in August following 

a 0.7% decline in July and food services and drinking places sales were 

up 0.3% after a 0.1% July drop. Sales were mixed for the other 

categories, but there were noticeable declines for electronics, clothing, 

and nonstore retailers. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]