MNI Asia Morning FX Analysis - Stable as Biden Nears Finish Line

Markets Stabilise as Biden Looks Almost Certain

Equities stabilised Friday, with some mild profit-taking taking the S&P500 off the week's high, but still clocking a gain on the week of more than 7%. Biden looks almost certain to enter the White House in the coming days, with key swing states continuing to heavily favour the former Vice President.

A better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls release also soothed markets, with the US adding 50k jobs more than expected, shrinking the unemployment rate to 6.9% - a drop of 1ppt.

The greenback traded weaker once more, with EUR/USD climbing to further multi-month highs of 1.1891 - putting the onus in the ECB as they look to 'recalibrate' policy in December.

AUD was the poorest performer Friday, with SEK, EUR and CHF among the strongest.

Data covering UK jobs, German ZEW surveys and European industrial production are due in the coming week, as well as the first formal Fed speeches since the FOMC decision.

​EUR/USD TECHS: Rally Exposes 1.1881

• RES 4: 1.2000 High Sep 1 and major resistance
• RES 3: 1.1981 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1917 High Sep 10
• RES 1: 1.1891 High Nov 6
• PRICE: 1.1884 @ 17:15 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 1.1796 Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 1.1711 Low Nov 5
• SUP 3: 1.1603 Low Nov 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1576 0.764 proj of Sep 1 - 25 sell-off from Oct 21 high

EURUSD maintains a firmer tone following Thursday's gains and breach of 1.1770, Nov 4 high. The break firmed on the move through 1.1881, Oct 21 high, hitting a new multi-month high in the process. This opens 1.2011, The Sep 1 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.1603. A move below this support is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

GBP/USD TECHS: Attention Is On Key Near-term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3357 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 1.3280 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3177 High Oct 21 / Nov 6 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3174 61.8% Sept sell off
• PRICE: 1.3155 @ 17:28 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 1.2998 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2911/2855 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 1.2863 Low Oct 14 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2806 Low Sep 30

GBPUSD rallied again Friday, challenging key resistance at the bull trigger of 1.3177 - which markets didn't quite manage to top. To reinforce the bearish conditions, markets need a move below key near-term support at 1.2855, Nov 2 low, which is looking increasingly unlikely short-term. This would pave the way for a move towards 1.2676, Sep 23 low. On the upside, clearance of key resistance at 1.3177, Oct 21 high would alter the picture and reinstate a bullish theme.

​EUR/GBP TECHS: Monitoring The Bullish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 0.9149 Oct 20 high
• RES 3: 0.9107 High Oct 23
• RES 2: 0.9080 Trendline resistance drawn off the Sep 11 high
• RES 1: 0.9069 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 0.9031 @ 17:31 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 0.8989 Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 0.8946 Low Nov 4 and the key near-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8924 Low Sep 7
• SUP 4: 0.8900 Low Sep 4

EURGBP maintains a positive tone following Wednesday's recovery. In pattern terms the Wednesday candle line is a bullish engulfing reversal. If correct, it signals a floor has been established at 0.8946. Further gains would open 0.9107, Oct 23 high. Note there is a trendline resistance that intersects at 0.9080, drawn off the Sep 11 high and represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls. On the downside, a break of 0.8946 would resume the downtrend.

USD/JPY TECHS: Under Pressure

• RES 4: 105.75 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 105.27/34 50-day EMA / High Nov 4 and key S/T resistance
• RES 2: 104.54 High Nov 5
• RES 1: 104.00 Low Sep 21 and this week's break out level
• PRICE: 103.25 @ 17:32 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 103.09 Low Mar 12
• SUP 2: 102.02 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 101.36 Bear channel base drawn off the Mar 24 high
• SUP 4: 101.19 Low Mar 9 and major support

USDJPY remains heavy following the week's sell-off. The pair has cleared 104.00 - the first move through this mark since March's Coronavirus fallout. The first notable level provided little support at the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9-24 rally at 103.67. This keeps the outlook resolutely bearish signalling scope for weakness within a bear channel drawn off the Mar 24 high and opening 103.09 next, Mar 12 low. Initial resistance is seen at 104.00.

EUR/JPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 124.23 Bear channel top drawn off the Sep 1 high
• RES 3: 124.00 High Oct 27
• RES 2: 123.60 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.18 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 122.69 @ 17:33 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 121.62 Low Oct 30
• SUP 2: 121.50 0.764 proj of Sep 1 - 28 decline from Oct 9 high
• SUP 3: 120.50Bear channel base drawn off the Sep 1 high
• SUP 4: 120.39 1.000 proj of Sep 1 - 28 decline from Oct 9 high

EURJPY is trading above recent lows but despite the recent recovery, maintains a bearish tone following last week's sell-off. The cross has recently cleared support at 123.03/02 and 122.38, Sep 28 low. This move lower confirmed a resumption of the downleg that started Sep 1. Scope is seen for weakness towards 121.50 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 120.39 is on the radar, also a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 123.18.

​AUD/USD TECHS: Bulls Return

• RES 4: 0.7414 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 0.7339 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7314 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Nov 2 downleg
• RES 1: 0.7289 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 0.7269 @ 17:34 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 0.7145 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.7138/32 50- day and 20-day EMA support zone
• SUP 3: 0.7049 Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2 and the bear trigger

AUDUSD rallied sharply higher Thursday reinforcing the significance of this week's trendline break drawn off the Sep 1 high. Thursday's gains also resulted in a break of resistance at 0.7243, Oct 9 high. With bullish conditions strengthened, scope is seen for a climb towards 0.7314 next, a Fibonacci retracement and 0.7345, Sep 16 high. Initials support is seen at 0.7145.

USD/CAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3421 High Sep 30 and primary resistance
• RES 3: 1.3390 High Oct 29
• RES 2: 1.3300 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3178 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 1.3033 @ 17:36 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 1.3029 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 1.2994 Low Sep 1 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2952 Low Dec 31, 2019 and primary support
• SUP 4: 1.2939 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains vulnerable following Thursday's bearish session, in line with general USD weakness. The pair cleared a key short-term support at 1.3081, Oct 21 low, negating a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a stronger bearish near-term risk. The break lower refocuses attention on the key supports at 1.2994, Sep 1 low and the Dec 31, 2019 low of 1.2952. Initial resistance is at 1.3178, Thursday's high.

EUR/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$1.2139 Apr30-2018 high
• *$1.2099 Upper 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$1.2084 May01-2018 high
• *$1.2032 May02-2018 high
• *$1.2009/11 May03-2018 high/YTD Sep01 high
• *$1.1996 May14-2018 high
• *$1.1979/81 Upper Boll Band (3%)/Upper 2.0% 10-dma env
• *$1.1938 May15-2018 high
• *$1.1908 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *$1.1891 Intraday high
• *$1.1884 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:53GMT FRIDAY***
• *$1.1864 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$1.1851 Jun14-2018 high, 100-mma
• *$1.1815 Sep24-2018 high
• *$1.1796 Intraday low
• *$1.1783/78 55-dma/50-dma
• *$1.1777 Cloud top
• *$1.1769 21-dma
• *$1.1759/57 Cloud base/Sep27-2018 high
• *$1.1741/36 100-hma/38.2% 1.3993-1.0341
• *$1.1724 200-hma

GBP/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$1.3311 Mar19-2019 high
• *$1.3276/80 Mar20-2019 high/Upper 2.0% 10-dma env
• *$1.3269 Mar27-2019 high
• *$1.3253 Upper Bollinger Band (3%)
• *$1.3213 Mar28-2019 high
• *$1.3196 Apr03-2019 high
• *$1.3191 Apr04-2019 high
• *$1.3185 May06-2019 high
• *$1.3177 Intraday high
• *$1.3172 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *$1.3154 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:53GMT FRIDAY***
• *$1.3150 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$1.3144 Fibo 38.2% 1.4377-1.2382
• *$1.3133/31 Apr12-2019 high/May07-2019 high
• *$1.3109 Fibo 50% 1.1841-1.4377
• *$1.3093 Intraday low
• *$1.3080 May08-2019 high
• *$1.3063 Cloud top
• *$1.3041 May13-2019 high
• *$1.3027 100-hma
• *$1.3011 21-dma

EUR/GBP: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Gbp0.9134 Sep11-2017 high
• *Gbp0.9122 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Gbp0.9108/13 Jan03-2019 high/Upper 1.0% 10-dma env
• *Gbp0.9101 Cloud top
• *Gbp0.9079 Cloud base
• *Gbp0.9072 50-dma
• *Gbp0.9062/63 Jan11-2019 high/55-dma
• *Gbp0.9051/52/54 Jul17-2019 high/100-dma/Intraday high
• *Gbp0.9046/48 21-dma/Jul16-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9039 Jul18-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9034 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:53GMT FRIDAY***
• *Gbp0.9021 200-hma
• *Gbp0.9012/10 100-hma/Jul10-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9005/00 Jul23-2019 high/Jul22-2019 high
• *Gbp0.8989 Intraday low
• *Gbp0.8968 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Gbp0.8953 Jul23-2019 low
• *Gbp0.8932/29 Lower 1.0% 10-dma env/Lower Boll Band (3%)
• *Gbp0.8921/19 Jul02-2019 low/200-dma
• *Gbp0.8874/73/72 Jun19-2019 low/Jun20-2019 low/Jun12-2019 low
• *Gbp0.8865 Fibo 61.8% 0.9108-0.8473

USD/JPY: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Y104.87 Jan03-2019 low
• *Y104.80 21-dma
• *Y104.65 Cloud Kijun Sen
• *Y104.56 Mar26-2018 low
• *Y104.37 200-hma
• *Y104.26 100-hma, Cloud Tenkan Sen
• *Y103.93 200-mma
• *Y103.76 Intraday high
• *Y103.52 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Y103.29 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Y103.26 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:53GMT FRIDAY***
• *Y103.18 Intraday low
• *Y102.91 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• *Y102.25 Lower 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Y101.20 Nov09-2016 low, Lower 3.0% 10-dma env
• *Y101.19 YTD low
• *Y100.75 Sep30-2016 low
• *Y100.61 Fibo 50% 75.35-125.86
• *Y100.09 Sep27-2016 low
• *Y99.65 Aug18-2016 low
• *Y99.54 Aug16-2016 low

EUR/JPY: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Y123.54 Fibo 50% 109.57-137.50
• *Y123.51 May22-2019 high
• *Y123.36 Cloud Kijun Sen
• *Y123.35 21-dma
• *Y123.18 Jun11-2019 high
• *Y123.11 Fibo 50% 118.71-127.50
• *Y123.08 Fibo 38.2% 126.81-120.78
• *Y123.01 Jun12-2019 high
• *Y122.99 Intraday high
• *Y122.81 Cloud Tenkan Sen
• *Y122.72 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:53GMT FRIDAY***
• *Y122.56 Jun13-2019 high
• *Y122.40 100-hma
• *Y122.36 200-hma
• *Y122.23 Jul12-2019 high
• *Y122.22 Intraday low
• *Y122.13 Jun17-2019 high
• *Y122.07 Fibo 61.8% 118.71-127.50
• *Y121.95 Fibo 50% 94.12-149.78
• *Y121.92 Jun20-2019 high
• *Y121.85 Jul15-2019 high

AUD/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$0.7463/64 Jul26-2018 high/Jul25-2018 high
• *$0.7453 Aug09-2018 high
• *$0.7425 Fibo 38.2% 0.8136-0.6985
• *$0.7414 YTD Sep01 high
• *$0.7394 Dec04-2018 high
• *$0.7356 Dec05-2018 high
• *$0.7345/47 Upper3.0% 10-dma env/Upper Boll Band (3%)
• *$0.7295 Jan31-2019 high
• *$0.7287 Intraday high
• *$0.7273/74 Upper Boll Band (2%)/Upper 2.0% 10-dma env, Dec06-2018 high
• *$0.7273 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:53GMT FRIDAY***
• *$0.7253 50-mma
• *$0.7242/39 200-wma/Intraday low
• *$0.7210/07/06 Cloud top/Feb21-2019 high/Apr17-2019 high
• *$0.7202 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$0.7188/87 Cloud base/55-dma
• *$0.7181 50-dma
• *$0.7169 100-hma
• *$0.7153 Apr17-2019 low
• *$0.7140 Apr16-2019 low
• *$0.7131/29 21-dma/100-dma

USD/CAD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *C$1.3171 21-dma
• *C$1.3159/63/64 200-wma/Feb21-2019 low/Jul23-2019 high
• *C$1.3150/51 Feb20-2019 low/Jun20-2019 low
• *C$1.3141 100-hma
• *C$1.3120 Fibo 61.8% 1.2783-1.3665
• *C$1.3113/16 Feb25-2019 low/Jul23-2019 low
• *C$1.3107 Jun26-2019 low
• *C$1.3097 Intraday high
• *C$1.3062/66 Lower 1.0% 10-dma env/38.2% 1.4690-1.2062
• *C$1.3053 Fibo 38.2% 1.2062-1.3665
• *C$1.3029 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:53GMT FRIDAY***
• *C$1.3020/15 Intraday low/Oct25-2018 low
• *C$1.3011 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *C$1.2970 Oct24-2018 low
• *C$1.2957 YTD low
• *C$1.2933/30 Oct17-2018 low/Lower 2.0% 10-dma env, Lower Boll Band (3%)
• *C$1.2917 Oct16-2018 low
• *C$1.2891 Oct05-2018 low
• *C$1.2864 Fibo 50% 1.2062-1.3665
• *C$1.2857 Oct04-2018 low
• *C$1.2808 Oct03-2018 low

Expiries for Nov9 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

EUR/USD: $1.1780-00(E1.1bln), $1.1900(E2.8bln-EUR calls)

GBP/USD: $1.3000(Gbp705mln)

USD/CAD: C$1.3300-20($850mln)

Larger Option Pipeline

EUR/USD: Nov10 $1.1800(E1.2bln); Nov11 $1.1650-55(E1.1bln); Nov13 $1.2000(E1.2bln-EUR calls)

USD/JPY: Nov10 Y103.00($1.4bln-USD puts), Y103.75-80($1.2bln), Y104.40-50($2.8bln), Y105.00-05($1.1bln); Nov12 Y103.00($1.4bln-USD puts), Y105.40-50($1.1bln); Nov13 Y101.00($970mln-USD puts)

EUR/JPY: Nov16 Y123.00(E1.3bln)

EUR/AUD: Nov12 A$1.6520(E973mln)

USD/CNY: Nov11 Cny6.65($1.0bln)