MNI Asia Morning FX Analysis -USD Reverses as Biden Odds Improve

Greenback Reverses as Biden Odds Creep Higher

Despite the overnight volatility in betting odds, Biden holds a strong likelihood of victory with just the key swing states of Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina still up for grabs. After a particularly strong start, the USD reversed into the London close, with the greenback finishing close to the lows - reflecting the incline of Biden's implied odds to win the White House throughout the day.

Equities rallied sharply, with the S&P adding near 3% and the NASDAQ as much as 4% at some points of the session. US Treasury yields fell from the off, with the 10y yield nearing last week's lows of 0.7443.

GBP was the sole currency in G10 to underperform the USD Wednesday, with Barnier appearing in front of EU lawmakers to warn that differences remain between the UK and EU on key topics including fishing, and level playing field regulations. GBP/USD traded either side of 1.30 throughout.

Focus Thursday turns to the several central bank meetings - with the BoE, Norges Bank and Federal Reserve decisions all on the docket. Both the Fed and the Norges Bank are not seen making any changes to policy, but the BoE are likely to up the size of their QE programme in order just as the UK re-enter lockdown restrictions.

​EUR/USD TECHS: Bearish Backdrop

• RES 4: 1.1881 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1861 Oct 26 high
• RES 2: 1.1798 High Oct 28
• RES 1: 1.1770 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 1.1709 @ 16:22 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.1603 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 1.1576 0.764 proj of Sep 1 - 25 sell-off from Oct 21 high
• SUP 3: 1.1541 Low Jul 23
• SUP 4: 1.1482 1.000 proj of Sep 1 - 25 sell-off from Oct 21 high

EURUSD remains volatile as markets still lack clarity on the outcome of the US election. Technical signals however continue to highlight a bearish backdrop and Wednesday's low print of 1.1603 highlights an extension of the recent downleg with price probing key support at 1.1612, Sep 25 low. A clear break of 1.1612 would signal potential for weakness towards 1.1576 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is at the overnight high of 1.1770.

GBP/USD TECHS: Volatile And Off Earlier Highs

• RES 4: 1.3357 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 1.3278 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3177 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3140 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 1.2975 @ 16:25 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.2911/2855 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 2
• SUP 2: 1.2863 Low Oct 14 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2806 Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: 1.2794 76.4% retracement of the Sep 23 - Oct 21 rally

GBPUSD is volatile, finding resistance at 1.3140 Wednesday. The outlook remains bearish following last week's extension lower. However a move below key near-term support at 1.2855, Nov 2 low is required to reinforce bearish conditions. This would pave the way for a move towards 1.2676, Sep 23 low. On the upside, clearance of key resistance at 1.3177, Oct 21 high would reinstate a bullish theme.

​EUR/GBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 0.9149 Oct 20 high
• RES 3: 0.9107 High Oct 23
• RES 2: 0.9058 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.9032 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 0.9024 @ 16:26 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 0.8946 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 0.8924 Low Sep 7
• SUP 3: 0.8900 Low Sep 4
• SUP 4: 0.8866 Low Sep 11 and a major support

EURGBP initially traded lower in Asia-Pac hours confirming an extension of the current downtrend, before the price action gave way to a decent bounce into the close. The cross has cleared 0.8967, 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally and attention turns to 0.8900 ahead of the key support at 0.8866, Sep 3 low. The break lower overnight maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. On the upside, initial firm resistance remains at 0.9058, the 50-day EMA.

USD/JPY TECHS: Bearish Focus, But 104 Still Intact

• RES 4: 105.85 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 105.75 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 105.37 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.34 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 104.53 @ 16:32 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 104.15 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 104.00 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 103.67 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 103.09 Low Mar 12

USDJPY is off earlier highs. The outlook is bearish with attention on the key 104.00 handle, Sep 21 low. Clearance of this support would suggest scope for a deeper USD sell-off within the bear channel drawn off the Mar 24 high. Price is still trading above recent lows. A break above the overnight high though of 105.34 is required to undermine the bearish theme and expose 105.75 instead, Oct 20 high.

EUR/JPY TECHS: Focus Is On Support

• RES 4: 123.69 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 123.27 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 123.19 High Oct 28
• RES 1: 123.07 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 122.40 @ 16:36 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 121.62 Low Oct 30
• SUP 2: 121.50 0.764 proj of Sep 1 - 28 decline from Oct 9 high
• SUP 3: 120.68 Bear channel base drawn off the Sep 1 high
• SUP 4: 120.39 1.000 proj of Sep 1 - 28 decline from Oct 9 high

EURJPY is off recent lows but despite this maintains a bearish tone following last week's sell-off. The cross has recently cleared support at 123.03/02 and 122.38, Sep 28 low. This move lower confirmed a resumption of the downleg that started Sep 1. Scope is seen for weakness towards 121.50 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 120.39 is on the radar, also a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 123.07, Wednesday's intraday high.

​AUD/USD TECHS: Watching The Key Support Handle

• RES 4: 0.7314 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Nov 2 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7252 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Nov 2 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7243 High Oct 10 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7222 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 0.7172 @ 16:39 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 0.7049 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 0.6991 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 0.6965 23.6% retracement of the Mar - Sep rally
• SUP 4: 0.6931 0.764 proj of Sep 1 - 25 sell-off from Oct 9 high

AUDUSD traded firmer Tuesday before a particularly volatile session Wednesday. The pair cleared its key short-term trendline resistance drawn off the Sep 1 high earlier in the week. This signals a potential reversal, exposing resistance at 0.7243, Oct 9 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support lies at 0.6991, Nov 2 low. This is also the bear trigger, a break would resume recent bearish pressure.

USD/CAD TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 1.3476 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3421 High Sep 30 and primary resistance
• RES 2: 1.3390 High Oct 29
• RES 1: 1.3300 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 1.3212 @ 16:45 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.3096 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 1.3081 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3047 Low Sep 7
• SUP 4: 1.2949 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD sold off sharply Monday and that trend extended into Tuesday's close. Price action was understandably choppy Wednesday, but the pair settled lower into the close. A bullish outlook remains intact though while support at 1.3081 Oct 21 low holds. Last week's break of resistance at 1.3259, Oct 15 high and of 1.3341, Oct 7 high signals scope for a climb to 1.3421, Sep 30 high and a key resistance. Sub 1.3081 levels would instead expose 1.2994, Sep 1 low.

EUR/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$1.1938 May15-2018 high
• *$1.1891 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *$1.1860 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$1.1849/51 100-mma/Jun14-2018 high
• *$1.1815 Sep24-2018 high
• *$1.1777/78/82 Cloud top/50-dma/55-dma
• *$1.1770 Intraday high
• *$1.1757/60 Sep27-2018 high/21-dma
• *$1.1736 Fibo 38.2% 1.3993-1.0341
• *$1.1729 200-hma
• *$1.1719 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:07GMT WEDNESDAY***
• *$1.1707 Cloud base
• *$1.1670/67 100-hma/100-dma
• *$1.1651 Sep28-2018 high
• *$1.1629/25 Lower Boll Band (2%)/Lower 1.0% 10-dma env
• *$1.1621 Oct16-2018 high
• *$1.1613/09 161.8% swing $1.1497-1.1309/Down Trendline from Jul18-2008
• *$1.1603 Intraday low
• *$1.1570 Jan10-2019 high
• *$1.1563 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• *$1.1540 Jan11-2019 high

GBP/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$1.3213 Mar28-2019 high
• *$1.3196 Apr03-2019 high
• *$1.3191/95 Apr04-2019 high/Upper Boll Band (3%)
• *$1.3185 May06-2019 high
• *$1.3140/44 Intraday high/38.2% 1.4377-1.2382
• *$1.3128/31/33 Upper Boll Band (2%)/May07-2019 high/Upper 1.0% 10-dma env, Apr12-2019 high
• *$1.3109 Fibo 50% 1.1841-1.4377
• *$1.3080 May08-2019 high
• *$1.3041 May13-2019 high
• *$1.3000/03 Cloud top/55-dma
• *$1.3000 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:07GMT WEDNESDAY***
• *$1.2999 Fibo 61.8% 1.3381-1.2382
• *$1.2991/89 May10-2019 low, 21-dma/50-dma
• *$1.2985 200-hma
• *$1.2970 May14-2019 high
• *$1.2959/55 Cloud base/100-hma
• *$1.2951/50 50-mma/200-wma
• *$1.2915 Intraday low
• *$1.2904 May14-2019 low
• *$1.2888 100-dma
• *$1.2882 Fibo 50% 1.3381-1.2382

EUR/GBP: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Gbp0.9127 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Gbp0.9121 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Gbp0.9108 Jan03-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9101 Cloud top
• *Gbp0.9079 Cloud base
• *Gbp0.9069 50-dma
• *Gbp0.9062 55-dma, Jan11-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9048/51/53 Jul16-2019 high/Jul17-2019 high/21-dma, 100-dma
• *Gbp0.9039 Jul18-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9032/33 Intraday high/200-hma
• *Gbp0.9015 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:07GMT WEDNESDAY***
• *Gbp0.9010/08 Jul10-2019 high/100-hma
• *Gbp0.9005/00 Jul23-2019 high/Jul22-2019 high
• *Gbp0.8973 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Gbp0.8953 Jul23-2019 low
• *Gbp0.8945/40 Intraday low/Lower 1.0% 10-dma env
• *Gbp0.8934 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• *Gbp0.8921 Jul02-2019 low
• *Gbp0.8913 200-dma
• *Gbp0.8874/73/72 Jun19-2019 low/Jun20-2019 low/Jun12-2019 low
• *Gbp0.8865 Fibo 61.8% 0.9108-0.8473

USD/JPY: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Y105.45 55-dma
• *Y105.39 50-dma
• *Y105.34 Intraday high
• *Y105.17 Cloud base
• *Y105.07 Cloud Kijun Sen
• *Y105.05 21-dma
• *Y104.87 Jan03-2019 low
• *Y104.69 Cloud Tenkan Sen
• *Y104.64 100-hma
• *Y104.56/61 Mar26-2018 low/200-hma
• *Y104.49 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:07GMT WEDNESDAY***
• *Y104.15 Intraday low
• *Y104.02 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Y103.94 200-mma
• *Y103.57 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Y103.53 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• *Y102.52 Lower 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Y101.47 Lower 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Y101.20 Nov09-2016 low
• *Y101.19 YTD low
• *Y100.75 Sep30-2016 low

EUR/JPY: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Y123.51 May22-2019 high
• *Y123.36 Cloud Kijun Sen
• *Y123.18 Jun11-2019 high
• *Y123.11 Fibo 50% 118.71-127.50
• *Y123.08 Fibo 38.2% 126.81-120.78
• *Y123.07 Intraday high
• *Y123.01 Jun12-2019 high
• *Y122.93 Cloud Tenkan Sen
• *Y122.70 200-hma
• *Y122.56 Jun13-2019 high
• *Y122.45 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:07GMT WEDNESDAY***
• *Y122.23 Jul12-2019 high
• *Y122.13 Jun17-2019 high
• *Y122.11 100-hma
• *Y122.07 Fibo 61.8% 118.71-127.50
• *Y121.96 Intraday low
• *Y121.95 Fibo 50% 94.12-149.78
• *Y121.92 Jun20-2019 high
• *Y121.85 Jul15-2019 high
• *Y121.78 100-wma
• *Y121.62 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope

AUD/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$0.7356 Dec05-2018 high
• *$0.7315 Upper 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$0.7301 Upper Bollinger Band (3%)
• *$0.7295 Jan31-2019 high
• *$0.7274 Dec06-2018 high
• *$0.7251 50-mma
• *$0.7240/43/44 Upper Boll Band (2%)/200-wma/Upper 2.0% 10-dma env
• *$0.7222 Intraday high
• *$0.7206/07 Apr17-2019 high/Feb21-2019 high
• *$0.7190/94 Cloud base/Cloud top
• *$0.7184 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:07GMT WEDNESDAY***
• *$0.7183/82 55-dma/50-dma
• *$0.7173 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$0.7153 Apr17-2019 low
• *$0.7140 Apr16-2019 low
• *$0.7121/19/16 100-dma/21-dma/Apr12-2019 low
• *$0.7110 Apr10-2019 low
• *$0.7088/87 Apr08-2019 low/200-hma
• *$0.7073/70/69 Mar29-2019 low/100-hma/Apr30-2019 high
• *$0.7057/53 Jul22-2019 high/Apr02-2019 low
• *$0.7049/48 Intraday low/Jul04-2019 high, May07-2019 high

USD/CAD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *C$1.3286 Jun20-2019 high
• *C$1.3254 100-hma
• *C$1.3237/42 200-hma/Cloud base
• *C$1.3224/26 50% 1.2783-1.3665/Jun10-2019 low
• *C$1.3203/06 55-dma/50-dma
• *C$1.3188 21-dma
• *C$1.3178 50-mma
• *C$1.3160/63/64 200-wma/Feb21-2019 low/Jul23-2019 high
• *C$1.3150/51 Feb20-2019 low/Jun20-2019 low
• *C$1.3120 Fibo 61.8% 1.2783-1.3665
• *C$1.3118 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 17:07GMT WEDNESDAY***
• *C$1.3116/13 Jul23-2019 low/Feb25-2019 low
• *C$1.3107 Jun26-2019 low
• *C$1.3096 Intraday low
• *C$1.3078 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *C$1.3066 Fibo 38.2% 1.4690-1.2062
• *C$1.3053 Fibo 38.2% 1.2062-1.3665
• *C$1.3047 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *C$1.3015 Oct25-2018 low
• *C$1.2978 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• *C$1.2970 Oct24-2018 low

Expiries for Nov5 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

EUR/USD: $1.1500(E558mln), $1.1540-50(E588mln), $1.1750(E586mln)

USD/JPY: Y105.00($964mln), Y106.06-09($1.6bln), Y106.45-50($632mln)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8980-00(E570mln)

EUR/JPY: Y124.50(E1.1bln)

AUD/USD: $0.7125-33(A$774mln)

USD/CAD: C$1.3140-50($644mln)

USD/CNY: Cny6.75($1.2bln), Cny6.80($1.9bln), Cny6.85($1.3bln)

Larger Option Pipeline

EUR/USD: Nov06 $1.1600(E1.8bln), $1.1795-05(E1.5bln); Nov09 $1.1900(E1.9bln-EUR calls); Nov10 $1.1800(E1.2bln)

USD/JPY: Nov06 Y104.89-00($1.2bln); Nov10 Y104.50($1.2bln), Y105.00-05($1.1bln); Nov12 Y103.00($1.4bln); Nov10 Y104.30-50($2.9bln)

EUR/AUD: Nov12 A$1.6520(E973mln)

USD/CNY: Nov06 Cny6.70($1.2bln)