MNI (NEW YORK) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- MNI INTERVIEW: Fed To Temper Pace Of Cuts In 2025 - Bullard
- MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Pause Could Lead To Trump Clash-Ex-Nominee
- MNI BRIEF: Trudeau Says Canada Tax Holiday Won't Boost CPI
- US DATA: Better Initial Claims Clashes With Weaker Continuing Claims
- MNI BRIEF: Terminal Rate Higher Than BOE MPC Assumed - Mann
US TSYS: Modest Bear Flattening As We Await A Treasury Secretary Nominee
Treasuries weakened modestly Thursday with modest bear flattening in the cash curve.
- Futures gained overnight on renewed geopolitical tensions as Russia reportedly used an experimental ICBM against Ukraine. They would recede slightly but hit session highs of 109-28+ in mid-morning once the major data was out of the way.
- From there, Treasuries faded, as the missile episode was talked down by US officials, and equities hit the week's best levels following Wednesday's NVidia earnings beat.
- We await further developments after reports that president-elect Trump had selected a Treasury Secretary nominee - hedge fund manager Scott Bessent is again the favorite to take the nomination per betting markets as we publish this.
- Volumes were notably elevated (3.4M TYZ4) , but that's due to the quarterly roll ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays.
- Data did not have a lasting impact: solid initial jobless claims (for payrolls reference week) offset weakness in continuing claims, existing home sales remained subdued as expected, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Philly, KC) offered mixed indications on current activity.
- Likewise, the multiple Fed speakers brought little new insight on the rates front, including an overnight interview with NY's Williams and, disappointingly, Cleveland Fed's Hammack who had no commentary on current monetary policy.
- Latest levels: the 2-Yr yield is up 2.8bps at 4.3423%, 5-Yr is up 1.6bps at 4.2946%, 10-Yr is up 0.8bps at 4.4178%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 4.6063%.
- Friday's docket is highlighted by preliminary PMIs for November, with the final November UMichigan survey also of note - the only Fed speaker scheduled is Gov Bowman after hours, but we've already heard from her this week.
NEWS
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The Federal Reserve could pause interest rate cuts as early as December and make further reductions at a tempered pace next year on the rising risk of sticky inflation, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told MNI. Growth and inflation data have come in stronger than expected since the Fed began easing policy in September. Next year, tax cuts are likely to top the agenda for President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress as an issue on which most can agree. Economists generally see a large expansion of fiscal deficits as inflationary.
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Tensions could flare between the Federal Reserve and the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump if the central bank decides to stop cutting interest rates early next year because of the president’s policies, former Trump Fed nominee Judy Shelton told MNI. Shelton, who advised the Treasury transition team in the first Trump administration, says Fed policy of interest rate “recalibration” makes sense in an environment where the only ones getting pinched by high borrowing costs are small businesses.
EU (MNI SOURCES): The European Union would deploy tools such as its anti-coercion instrument in response to any tariffs imposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, but officials told MNI Brussels would avoid any knee-jerk reaction and could potentially do a deal with Washington for a joint push to remove China’s developing country status at the WTO. While the EU has at its disposal tools including anti-dumping duties and tariffs, its anti-coercion instrument would provide legal grounds for duties if tariffs do not appear to be based on facts or on sound economic analysis.
US (MNI): Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent is again the favourite to take the nomination to serve as US President-elect Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary with the selection made and an announcement expected "imminently," according to Charles Gasparino at Fox Business. Bessent was a strong frontrunner early in the race, but fell away amid reports of acrimony between Bessent and Trump's transition team. According to Polymarket, Bessent has surged to just under 50% implied probability of taking the nomination, ahead of Apollo Global Management executive Marc Rowan (27%) and former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (18%). Bloomberg reported this morning: “Those close to the process underscored that a choice could be announced at any minute. But already, the extended deliberation highlights its importance to Trump’s economic agenda, and his exacting-and-yet-at-times-contradictory requirements for the role.” The announcement is likely to come on Trump's Truth Social page here.
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday billions of dollars of proposed tax breaks won't boost inflation, an announcement coming as he’s badly trailing in opinion polls and the budget office says the government has already broken a pledge for deficits no greater than CAD40 billion. “Now that inflation has come down back to the target range in Canada and has been for 10 months, interest rates are coming down again which is providing real relief for Canadians. Even with that, Canadians need a tax break,” Trudeau said at a press conference alongside Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. Inflation quickened to 2% in October from the prior 1.6% and the BOC has cut rates four times this year saying prices appear to be stabilizing.
CANADA / USMCA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Thursday said that while keeping Mexico in a North American free trade pact is his first choice, other options may be needed, his strongest public comments to date about the potential for returning to a bilateral deal with the U.S. “There have been real and genuine concerns raised about Chinese investment into Mexico that I brought up directly with the Mexican President,” Trudeau told reporters in Toronto. “We are leaving all doors open, because my job is and always will be to stand up for Canadian workers.” (See: MNI POLICY: Canada Fears US Reaction To Mexico-China Auto Ties)
BOE (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of England's terminal policy rate was clearly above where the Bank's models had assumed that it would be and that policy has not been as restrictive as previously thought, Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said Thursday. Looking at the "underlying models that we run our forecast off of the terminal rate was last calculated in 2018, at 2.25 nominal ...my view is it's definitely higher than that," Mann said at a Brown Brothers Harriman event, noting the market curve has it just under 4%. Market curves have been assuming around a 100 basis points of cuts over the next 12 months but Mann said 100 bps of easing "would not be consistent." with her views.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Thursday the U.S. central bank should consider the benefits of centrally clearing transactions at its Standing Repo Facility to further enhance the effectiveness of the backstop. "I view the creation of the SRF and FIMA facilities as a kind of constant innovation that's required to keep the financial system safe from emerging risks. As part of that constant innovation, we should ensure that our tools are keeping pace with market developments," she said at a financial stability conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Treasury's Office of Financial Research.
EU (MNI BRIEF): The European Union should react to any move by the incoming U.S. Trump administration to impose tariffs in a coordinated, precise and proportionate way, Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said on Thursday. The Commissioner said there had been "quite broad agreement" among EU trade ministers in talks that there should be "constructive engagement" with the U.S., saying that old trade disputes should not be reopened and that new ones should be avoided. (See MNI: EU Wields Anti-Coercion Tool, Aims At Trump Deal-Sources)
OVERNIGHT DATA
US DATA: Better Initial Claims Clashes With Weaker Continuing Claims
- Initial jobless claims surprised lower at 213k (sa, cons 220k) in the week to Nov 16, a payrolls reference week, after an upward revised 219k (initial 217k).
- That’s the lowest since April and compares with 242k and 222k in the Oct and September payrolls reference periods.
- The four-week average fell further to 218k (-4k), its lowest since May and exactly in line with the 2019 average.
- State-level contributions to the -17.75k decline in national non-seasonally adjusted initial claims were largest in California (-4.7k) as it unwound a prior increase but otherwise fairly broad-based.
- Continuing claims provided a dovish offset though, surprising at 1908k (sa, cons 1880k) in the week to Nov 9 after an almost unrevised 1872k (initial 1873k).
- The combination points to a continuation of labor market moderation characterized by slower re-hiring rather faster layoffs, with the pace of the latter actually seeing a healthy easing.
US DATA: Glacially Slow Normalization Of Existing Home Sales Continues
Existing home sales ticked up to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.96M in October, a 3-month high and up from 3.83M prior. This is the first time since July 2021 that monthly sales have exceeded those in the same period of the year before (3.85M in Oct 2023). The National Association of Realtors provides an optimistic appraisal of this development: "The worst of the downturn in home sales could be over, with increasing inventory leading to more transactions." But rather than any sign of recovery, the Y/Y recovery is meager, and a reflection of how consistently poor existing home sales have been for an extended period.
- Indeed this is the 5th consecutive month below the 4M mark, implying activity consistent with the depths of the Global Financial Crisis housing bust, and available inventory is slowly creeping back up: at 4.3 months of sales, for the 2nd consecutive month, for the highest back-to-back readings since September/October 2018.
- New home sales (data out next week) are expected to continue faring relatively better, helped by better underpinning financing dynamics: existing home sales activity
continues to diminish as low locked-in fixed rate mortgages deter movement, and delinquencies remain low. - The standoff between sellers and would-be buyers is underlined by the fact that prices continue to hold up, with the median of $407.2K (NSA) up 4.0% Y/Y, and average prices up 5.1% at $540.3k - so there is little evidence that sellers are blinking even as sales taper off.
- With mortgage rates still elevated (30Y conforming rates at 6.90% in the latest week, up 76bp from the September low) dampening activity, there is unlikely to be any major movement in existing home sales until either rates pull back sharply or unemployment rises, forcing sales.
- In the meantime, high prices will continue to buoy the wealth effect for homeowning households, helping underpin consumption and thereby presenting a headwind to lower interest rates in a feedback loop of sorts.
US DATA: Philly Fed Optimism Continues To Soar, Even If Activity Doesn't (1/2)
The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Survey for November tells two very different stories: the first is of stagnant ongoing activity, but the second is of a reflationary rebound within the next 6 months.
- Per the Philadelphia Fed, the -5.5 headline reading for general activity (just the second negative reading since January and vs 10.3 prior, 8.0 expected) suggests "softer regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity fell into negative territory, and the new orders and shipments indexes also declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes were near their long-run averages."
- Notably, the average workweek jumped to its highest level since April 2022, amid a broader increase in employment.
- Otherwise, the Current Indicators were largely consistent with the softness seen in recent months: MNI's rough estimate of the ISM-weighted equivalent for November's report is 49.2, which would be a 5-month low and in stagnation territory.
But the survey also showed a surge in expectations for growth and inflation over the next six months: future general activity rose to 56.6 (highest since June 2021) from 36.7 prior, with future new orders and shipments also reaching 3+ year highs. Employment expectations rose too, to 34.2 from 27.3.
- This was accompanied however by higher future inflation expectations: future prices paid rose to 63.7 (highest since Apr 2022) from 47.3, with future prices received up 9 points to 48.5.
US DATA: Traces Of Election Influence On Philly Fed Future Readings (2/2)
At first glance the exuberance over future activity seen in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey appears to be election-related to at least some degree: the survey was conducted Nov 11-18 (after the Nov 5 election).
- Recall that the Empire State Manufacturing survey for November showed the highest activity rate since December 2021, with the survey conducted between Nov 4 and Nov 12 pointing to a potential election effect. However, the Empire outlook for future activity actually edged down, in contrast to the Philly Fed's.
- Looking at the history of the series as well, it's hard to draw the conclusion that the Philly numbers are purely election-related. November's jump in the future general activity index isn't even as big as October's (19.9 vs 20.9 points), and optimism has clearly been trending higher since the start of the year, well before the election.
- As such the simplest explanation is simply that regional manufacturers see stronger activity ahead versus an extended fallow period. Optimism hasn't quite translated into actual improvements in current business conditions in this recovery cycle - the first big jump was in March 2024 and we still haven't seen activity improve 8 months later. But it certainly doesn't look like a renewed downturn is imminent.
- More troubling perhaps is the resurgence in price expectations, both received and, to a greater extent, paid (as noted in previous note, highest since Apr 2022).
- There may be an element of tariff concern here post-election, though in November 2016 as Trump was elected for the first time, price expectations actually dipped. It wasn't until late 2017, ahead of the wide-ranging tariffs introduced by the Trump administration in 2018, that expected prices paid jumped above the 60.0 level which is where the indicator now stands.
- Either way, the rise in the price expectations diffusion index since early 2023 has been substantial, in both the Philly and Empire surveys - consistent with the reacceleration in core goods prices that we have begun to see, and expect to see more of in the months ahead.
US DATA: KC Fed Survey Curiously Shows Stronger Expectations, But Softer Prices
Manufacturing activity in the Kansas City Fed's district picked up slightly in November, with the composite index rising to -2 from -4 (and contrary to an expected deterioration to -5). This was the second consecutive uptick in the composite index, which is an average of the main subindices (production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes).
- The KC Fed's report notes a decline in nondurable goods manufacturing in November, with durable goods activity flat. Production and new orders fell, while employment was steady.
- As with the Philadelphia Fed counterpart survey earlier in the day, expectations for future activity rose: the future composite rose to 11 from 7, with stronger expectations for the next 6 months in future production and new orders, with employment and capex also expected to grow. This was the joint-highest expectations reading since August 2022 (it also printed 11 in September 2022 and January 2024).
- In contrast to other regional Fed indices however, KC Fed manufacturing price increases continue to cool: prices paid (5 vs 19 prior) and received (6 from 11 prior) both fell sequentially, with prices paid at a 13-month low. Expected prices paid fell to a 7-month low as well.
- As such, the signals sent from the regional Fed reports have been quite hard to parse: Empire had explosive current activity but softer expectations, Philly had soft current activity but soaring future expectations and higher expected inflation, while KC is similar to Philly except for the opposite move in inflation expectations.
- There's always volatility and divergence between the regional Fed surveys, but we suspect some of the findings are tied to business' reactions to the Nov 5 election.
CANADA DATA: Raw Material Prices In Oct Show Third Straight YOY Decline
- Canada's Raw Materials Price Index -2.8% YOY in October, third straight decrease.
- RMPI +3.8% MOM led by crude.
- Industrial Price Index +1.2% MOM after two prior declines. Biggest monthly growth since April.
- Increase driven by precious metals, +7.6% amid Middle Eastern conflict, U.S. election uncertainty and interest rate cuts by central banks.
- IPPI +1.1% YOY was also mainly boosted by precious metals while multiple product groups declined.
- BOC has premised its rate cuts partly on the idea that companies are scaling back major price increases.
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Below gives key levels of markets in afternoon NY trade:
- DJIA up 549.8 points (1.27%) at 43956.1
- S&P E-Mini Future up 45.75 points (0.77%) at 5983
- Nasdaq up 53.2 points (0.3%) at 19023.18
- US 10-Yr yield is up 1.8 bps at 4.4277%
- US Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) are down 5.5/32 at 109-16.5
- EURUSD down 0.0064 (-0.61%) at 1.0482
- USDJPY down 0.88 (-0.57%) at 154.54
- WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $1.43 (2.08%) at $70.18
- Gold is up $19.49 (0.74%) at $2669.18
Prior European bourses closing levels:
- EuroStoxx 50 up 26.12 points (0.55%) at 4755.83
- FTSE 100 up 64.2 points (0.79%) at 8149.27
- German DAX up 141.39 points (0.74%) at 19146.17
- French CAC 40 up 14.87 points (0.21%) at 7213.32
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
Dec 2-Yr futures (TU) down 2.125/32 at 102-17.875 (L: 102-17.5 / H: 102-21.4)
Dec 5-Yr futures (FV) down 4.5/32 at 106-17 (L: 106-16 / H: 106-25.5)
Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 5/32 at 109-17 (L: 109-14.5 / H: 109-28.5)
Dec 30-Yr futures (US) down 11/32 at 116-07 (L: 116-0 / H: 116-29)
Dec Ultra futures (WN) down 15/32 at 122-11 (L: 122-2 / H: 123-8)
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 112-22 High Oct 16 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 111-17+ 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Oct 25
- RES 1: 110-08+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-18 @ 16:58 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 108-30/18+ Low Nov 15 / 1.236 proj of Oct 1 - 10 - 16 swing
- SUP 2: 108-03 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 108-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 107-17 2.0% 10-dma envelope
The trend condition in Treasuries is unchanged, bears remain in the driver’s seat and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Sights are on 108-18+ next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the focus is on the 108-00 handle. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at the 20-day EMA. The average is at 110-08+.
STIR: Fed Funds Pricing A Little More Hawkish On The Day
Fed funds implied pricing was little changed Thursday, with data proving mixed (downside surprise in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, offset by larger than expected jump in continuing jobless claims, offset by lower than expected initial claims and soaring Philly Fed expectations). Meanwhile Fed speakers (Schmid, Goolsbee, Hammack, Williams) did not bring anything new to the rate discussion.
- A 25bp cut in December remains a little better than 55% likely vs 45% of a hold, with the first full cut only priced by March 2025; there is roughly 3bp less in cumulative cuts seen through end-2025.
- Deutsche Bank now sees the Fed funds rate held at 4.25-4.50% through 2025 (following a December 25bp cut), largely on account of the inflationary implications of tariffs. That's one of the few analyst views that includes fewer cuts than market pricing (indeed 50bp fewer cuts than FF implied through Dec-25).
| Meeting | Current FF Implieds (%), LH | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) | Prior Session (Nov 20) | Chg Since Then (bp) |
| Dec 18 2024 | 4.44 | -13.9 | -13.9 | 4.45 | -0.6 |
| Jan 29 2025 | 4.38 | -19.7 | -5.8 | 4.38 | 0.0 |
| Mar 19 2025 | 4.25 | -33.2 | -13.5 | 4.24 | 0.9 |
| May 07 2025 | 4.18 | -40.2 | -7.0 | 4.16 | 1.5 |
| Jun 18 2025 | 4.06 | -51.6 | -11.4 | 4.05 | 1.7 |
| Jul 30 2025 | 4.01 | -57.2 | -5.6 | 3.99 | 2.3 |
| Sep 17 2025 | 3.95 | -63.0 | -5.8 | 3.92 | 2.7 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 3.91 | -67.0 | -4.0 | 3.89 | 2.5 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 3.88 | -70.0 | -3.0 | 3.85 | 3.0 |
SOFR FIXES AND PRIOR SESSION REFERENCE RATES
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.58771 -0.00742
- 3M 4.52084 0.00705
- 6M 4.43378 0.01054
- 12M 4.29125 0.03023
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: SOFR Softens, Should Tick Up On CMB Settlement
Repo reference rates were little changed Wednesday, with SOFR ticking 1bp lower to 4.56%. Rates are expected to firm up Thursday, amid unusually large bill settlements ($50B cash management bill in addition to the usual bills). Effective Fed Funds remains steady as usual at 4.58%.
REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.56%, -0.01%, $2155B
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.56%, no change, $790B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.56%, no change, $763B
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.58%, no change, volume: $102B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.58%, no change, volume: $277B
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: ON RRP Takeup Pulls Back
Takeup of the NY Fed's overnight reverse repo facility fell $29B to $188.6B - the lowest level in 4 sessions.
- The pullback could be partly related to an unusually large bill settlement (as mentioned earlier, $50B cash management bill in addition to the usual bills).
- Takeup is seen rising as usual toward end-month.
EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Slightly Stronger, Shrugging Off FX Move
EGBs and Gilts closed a little stronger Thursday, shrugging off larger cross-market moves.
- The biggest moves in the space occurred in early trade, Bunds/Gilts rallying on reports that Russia may have conducted an attack on Ukraine using an ICBM.
- The afternoon's standout moves in European markets were in FX, with equities rising strongly from session lows and EURUSD falling quickly to fresh cycle lows below 1.05. The latter move was seen as both fix-related and came alongside headlines that Spain's lower house approved a tax package that included an extension to a bank windfall tax, while Volkswagen workers were said to be set to strike in December.
- Core FI largely shrugged off the move: both the UK and German curves closed bull steeper. But the impact was seen more acutely in periphery EGBs, which saw spreads reverse earlier tightening.
- OATs continued to underperform, with 10Y spreads to Bunds widening 3bp as political and fiscal concern lingered.
- On that note, eurozone consumer confidence fell to a 6-month low, amid political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic.
- BOE hawk Mann continued to express support for for higher for longer rates until there is a change in underlying inflation dynamics.
- Attention Friday will be on November flash PMIs.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.3bps at 2.108%, 5-Yr is down 3.7bps at 2.141%, 10-Yr is down 3.3bps at 2.318%, and 30-Yr is down 1bps at 2.54%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.2bps at 4.383%, 5-Yr is down 2.6bps at 4.297%, 10-Yr is down 2.6bps at 4.443%, and 30-Yr is down 1bps at 4.911%.
- Italian BTP spread up 2.5bps at 125.3bps / Spanish up 1.4bps at 72.5bps
FOREX: Greenback Optimism Continues, EURUSD Slides Back Below 1.0500
- The rally for the US dollar gained further traction on Thursday, as geopolitical risk headlines and a late sell-off for the Euro prompted the ICE USD index to rise back above 107 and print a fresh cycle high.
- EURUSD finds itself back below the 1.0500 handle and has printed a low of 1.0462 on the move. The 2023 lows at 1.0448 have so far provided support, however, the single currency remains vulnerable ahead of tomorrow’s release of Eurozone flash PMIs. Negative headlines surrounding a Spanish fiscal package and looming VW strikes in Germany have assisted the Euro lower.
- With equities holding up well throughout the session, the likes of EURAUD and EURCAD have underperformed, and are approaching key levels of 1.6000 and 1.4600 respectively. We provide a full technical update for a selection of EUR crosses here.
- JPY's resurgent safe haven status is again underpinning the currency, with JPY running firmer alongside another ratchet higher in geopolitical tensions across the early European session. In response to the use of US and Franco-British long-range missiles in Ukrainian territory, Russia were reported to have launched an ICBM strike on Ukraine – however, there were conflicting headlines on the exact definitions later in the day.
- Either way, EURJPY is down 1.1% on Thursday and reapproaches the Tuesday lows at 161.50, of which a break below would confirm a resumption of the recent bear leg. USDJPY also briefly slipped back below 154.00, however, the broader greenback optimism around the WMR fix provided solid support for the pair.
- As well as the European and US flash PMIs, UK and Canadian retail sales data is expected Friday, as well as a speech from SNB Chairman Schlegel.
DATA/EVENTS CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 21/11/2024 | 2140/1640 |  US | Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr | |
| 22/11/2024 | 2200/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 22/11/2024 | 2330/0830 | *** |  JP | CPI |
| 22/11/2024 | 0001/0001 | ** |  GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 22/11/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 22/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** |  DE | GDP (f) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 22/11/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0830/0930 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde on Europe and New World Order | |
| 22/11/2024 | 0840/0940 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at Foro Observatorio Económico | |
| 22/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 22/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 22/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 22/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 22/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** |  CA | Retail Trade |
| 22/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 22/11/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 22/11/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 22/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 22/11/2024 | 1545/1645 | EU | ECB's Schnabel in panel on MonPol | |
| 22/11/2024 | 2315/1815 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman |