MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Japan Oct Core CPI Rises 2.3%, Services Rise

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, November 21

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Support For Foreign Trade - MOFCOM

MNI: UK NOV GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX -18

MNI JAPAN OCT CORE CPI +2.3% Y/Y; SEPT +2.4%

MNI: FED BALANCE SHEET TOTAL ASSETS -$43B TO $6.924T IN WEEK

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Fed Funds Pricing A Little More Hawkish On The Day

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Fed funds implied pricing was little changed Thursday, with data proving mixed (downside surprise in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, offset by larger than expected jump in continuing jobless claims, offset by lower than expected initial claims and soaring Philly Fed expectations). Meanwhile Fed speakers (Schmid, Goolsbee, Hammack, Williams) did not bring anything new to the rate discussion.

  • A 25bp cut in December remains a little better than 55% likely vs 45% of a hold, with the first full cut only priced by March 2025; there is roughly 3bp less in cumulative cuts seen through end-2025.
  • Deutsche Bank now sees the Fed funds rate held at 4.25-4.50% through 2025 (following a December 25bp cut), largely on account of the inflationary implications of tariffs. That's one of the few analyst views that includes fewer cuts than market pricing (indeed 50bp fewer cuts than FF implied through Dec-25). 

 

Keep reading...Show less
180 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Fed funds implied pricing was little changed Thursday, with data proving mixed (downside surprise in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, offset by larger than expected jump in continuing jobless claims, offset by lower than expected initial claims and soaring Philly Fed expectations). Meanwhile Fed speakers (Schmid, Goolsbee, Hammack, Williams) did not bring anything new to the rate discussion.

  • A 25bp cut in December remains a little better than 55% likely vs 45% of a hold, with the first full cut only priced by March 2025; there is roughly 3bp less in cumulative cuts seen through end-2025.
  • Deutsche Bank now sees the Fed funds rate held at 4.25-4.50% through 2025 (following a December 25bp cut), largely on account of the inflationary implications of tariffs. That's one of the few analyst views that includes fewer cuts than market pricing (indeed 50bp fewer cuts than FF implied through Dec-25). 

 

Keep reading...Show less