FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key Asia Pac macro events and themes
USCentral Bank NewsHomepageFederal ReserveAPACJapanAustraliaNew ZealandSouth KoreaGlobalStoryIndiaChinaMarketsRegionNorth America

Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • Japan’s PPI rose more than forecast, while the weaker yen trend may boost import price pressures in coming months. Q3 GDP was close to expectations, with consumer spending better than forecast. BoJ Governor Ueda speaks on Monday, with the policy outlook in focus. We also have National CPI next week. 
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • October employment growth was softer than expected but the unemployment rate was steady, including for 15-24 year olds, hours worked rose, and underemployment fell. But Q3 wage inflation surprised to the downside and showed signs of easing as inflation moderates and the economy slows.
  • November Westpac consumer confidence rose 5.3% m/m after 6.2%. It is now its highest since April 2022, the month before the RBA began to tighten, and up 18.3% y/y%. Rates have been unchanged for a year now and real incomes have begun to rise, which is likely supporting the sentiment recovery.
  • There was more goods news in the October NAB business survey with confidence rising to its highest since January 2023, while prices/costs moderated further.
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
  • NZ retail card spending posted a third consecutive monthly rise in October, showing tentative signs of turning up. 1-year inflation expectations moderated to the target band mid-point, while October monthly price series implied that Q4 inflation is likely weaker than the RBNZ forecast in August. 
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES
    $-Bloc markets firmed substantially over the past week, led by the Fed.
     
  • CHINA
  • China inflation and credit data still pointed to a softer private domestic demand backdrop. Retail sales were better, but IP and fixed asset investment were a touch below expectations. The yuan defence picked up this week amid a resurgent USD. 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • Data outcomes/growth expectations remain skewed towards softer domestic growth, while export growth has come off the boil. 
     
  • ASIA
  • A spike in inflation may see RBI leave rates on hold before year end (as opposed to a cut). Philippines cut tax rates this week, to attract more offshore investment. 
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Asia equities continue to see outflows post the US election, led by Taiwan and South Korea. 
     
  • GLOBAL
  • The US visible trade deficit widened almost $80bn in September from December 2023 with bilateral deficits with NAFTA, the EU, China and Pacific Rim ex China all widening. President-elect Trump wants 10-20% tariffs on all imports with higher rates for China and Mexico. 

    PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (November 15 2024) .pdf
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Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • Japan’s PPI rose more than forecast, while the weaker yen trend may boost import price pressures in coming months. Q3 GDP was close to expectations, with consumer spending better than forecast. BoJ Governor Ueda speaks on Monday, with the policy outlook in focus. We also have National CPI next week. 
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • October employment growth was softer than expected but the unemployment rate was steady, including for 15-24 year olds, hours worked rose, and underemployment fell. But Q3 wage inflation surprised to the downside and showed signs of easing as inflation moderates and the economy slows.
  • November Westpac consumer confidence rose 5.3% m/m after 6.2%. It is now its highest since April 2022, the month before the RBA began to tighten, and up 18.3% y/y%. Rates have been unchanged for a year now and real incomes have begun to rise, which is likely supporting the sentiment recovery.
  • There was more goods news in the October NAB business survey with confidence rising to its highest since January 2023, while prices/costs moderated further.
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
  • NZ retail card spending posted a third consecutive monthly rise in October, showing tentative signs of turning up. 1-year inflation expectations moderated to the target band mid-point, while October monthly price series implied that Q4 inflation is likely weaker than the RBNZ forecast in August. 
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES
    $-Bloc markets firmed substantially over the past week, led by the Fed.
     
  • CHINA
  • China inflation and credit data still pointed to a softer private domestic demand backdrop. Retail sales were better, but IP and fixed asset investment were a touch below expectations. The yuan defence picked up this week amid a resurgent USD. 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • Data outcomes/growth expectations remain skewed towards softer domestic growth, while export growth has come off the boil. 
     
  • ASIA
  • A spike in inflation may see RBI leave rates on hold before year end (as opposed to a cut). Philippines cut tax rates this week, to attract more offshore investment. 
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Asia equities continue to see outflows post the US election, led by Taiwan and South Korea. 
     
  • GLOBAL
  • The US visible trade deficit widened almost $80bn in September from December 2023 with bilateral deficits with NAFTA, the EU, China and Pacific Rim ex China all widening. President-elect Trump wants 10-20% tariffs on all imports with higher rates for China and Mexico. 

    PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (November 15 2024) .pdf