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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak

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Still Vulnerable

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Bullish Price Sequence

15 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U17) 200-DMA Capping, 98.010 Support Remains Key 
*RES 4: 98.169 - 55-WMA 
*RES 3: 98.130 - 100-DMA 
*RES 2: 98.103 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: 98.079 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: 98.050 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 98.024 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 98.010 - Repeated Daily Lows 
*SUP 3: 97.980 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*SUP 4: 97.940 - Low July 26
*COMMENTARY: The 200-DMA capped and now the 21-DMA is supporting. The 98.010
support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of
bullish pressure and to hint at a move back to 97.810-860 with below 97.980
confirming. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a
close above the 200-DMA to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target 55 &
100-DMAs & WMAs 98.103-177.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U17) Key MAs Capping 
*RES 4: 97.4740 - 55-WMA
*RES 3: 97.4450 - High June 30
*RES 2: 97.4190 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 97.3950 - Hourly resistance Aug 14
*PRICE: 97.3700 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.3650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 97.3297 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.3260 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 97.2500 - Low July 27
*COMMENTARY: Bulls are struggling with the 55-DMA capping attempts to break
higher. Bulls need a close above 97.4450 to confirm a break of 55 & 100-DMAs and
above the 55-WMA to confirm focus on 97.5200-6750 where 2017 highs are located.
The 21-DMA remains key support with bears needing a close below to confirm an
easing of bullish pressure and shift focus back to 97.1650-2100 where monthly
lows are noted.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 126-140
*RES 4: 127-070 - 200-WMA 
*RES 3: 127-020 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: 126-290 - High June 26 
*RES 1: 126-220 - Hourly resistance Aug 14
*PRICE: 126-160 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 126-140 - Hourly support Aug 10
*SUP 2: 126-050 - Low Aug 9
*SUP 3: 126-030 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 125-290 - Low Aug 8, Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the Bollinger top
(126-220) limiting follow through is less than ideal for bulls and sees pressure
back on the 126-140 support. Bears still need a close below 126-140 to ease
immediate bullish pressure and below 125-290 to hint at a deeper correction with
below 125-150 targeting 124-210/250. Bulls look for a close above 126-220 to
ease pressure on initial support.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.234-258 Resistance Key
*RES 4: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8
*RES 3: 2.262 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 2.258 - High Aug 9
*RES 1: 2.234 - Hourly resistance Aug 10
*PRICE: 2.208 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.203 - Hourly support Aug 14 
*SUP 2: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.174 - 55-WMA 
*SUP 4: 2.121 - Low June 26
*COMMENTARY: The 2.258 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the yield
capped ahead before heading sharply lower. The close below 2.212 reconfirmed
focus on tests of 2017 lows with a close below 2.103 needed to target
1.991-2.205 where the 100-WMA is noted. Layers of resistance remain with bulls
needing a close above 2.234 to gain breathing room and above 2.258 to shift
focus back to 2.262-289 where key DMAs are noted.
JGB TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA 
*RES 4: 150.71 - 55-WMA
*RES 3: 150.70 - 100-WMA
*RES 2: 150.67 - High June 28
*RES 1: 150.60 - Daily Bull channel top
*PRICE: 150.56 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.45 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 2: 150.32 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 150.23 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 150.11 - Low Aug 2
*COMMENTARY: Closes above 100 (150.49) and 200 (150.45) DMAs adds support to the
bullish case with focus on layers of resistance 150.67-150.92 where WMAs are
noted. The Bollinger top (150.48) is the key concern for bulls with potential to
limit follow through. The 200-DMA is now initial support with bears needing a
close below to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA so shift focus back to
150.03-06.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]