MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

1 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.770 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: 97.906 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 97.903 - 100-DMA, Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 97.855 - High Jan 10 

*RES 1: 97.815 - High Jan 31

*PRICE: 97.790 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24 now support 

*SUP 2: 97.705 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 4: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Wednesday eased immediate bearish pressure and

sees the contract flirting with the 21-DMA (97.791). Initial support is now

noted at 97.770 with bulls now focused on 97.855-906 where key DMAs are located

until a close below 97.770 is seen. Below 97.770 sees focus return to the

97.690-705 support region. Above the 55-DMA is needed to shift initial focus to

the 200-DMA (98.004) and overall focus to Nov highs (98.110).

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200 Resistance Now Key 

*RES 4: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 3: 97.2167 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24

*RES 1: 97.1950 - High Jan 31

*PRICE: 97.1700 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1450 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: 97.1050 - 2018 Low Jan 22

*SUP 3: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3

*SUP 4: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows is less than ideal given daily

studies correcting from O/S and sees pressure back on key resistance layers.

Bulls now need a close above 97.2200 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift

initial focus to 97.2800-4000 where the bear channel top and key DMAs are

located. Initial support is now seen at 97.1450 with bears needing a close below

to ease pressure on the 21-DMA.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Above 122-04+ To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 121-31 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 121-19 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 121-11+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 121-10+ 2018 Low Jan 31

*SUP 3: 121-04+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows lack follow through which is a concern

given O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls

need a close above 122-04+ to hint at a correction to 122-20/22+ with above the

21-DMA (122-22+) to shift focus to 123-05+/21+ where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears

initially focus on 120-25+ while the 21-DMA caps but need a close below 121-10+

to add weight to their case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.654-676 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.802 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.754 - 2018 High Jan 31

*PRICE: 2.726 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs

with immediate bullish focus on 2.802-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014 highs

(Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.756) is a concern and currently limits follow

through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.676

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to 2.571-609

where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 150.46 

*RES 4: 150.56 - High Jan 15

*RES 3: 150.46 - High Jan 26

*RES 2: 150.44 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: 150.38 - Hourly support Jan 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 150.31 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.27 - Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 2: 150.12 - 2018 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3 

*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA

with bulls now needing a close above 150.46 to ease bearish pressure. Above the

200-DMA (150.63) is needed to hint at a shift higher in focus with above 150.84

to target 151.19 Nov highs. Bears focus on a the close below 150.06 needed to

add weight to the case for a move targeting the 200-WMA (149.22).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]