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Recent Highs Remain Intact

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Bearish Risk

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Attention Is On The 50-day EMA

1 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.770 Support Now Key 
*RES 4: 97.906 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 97.903 - 100-DMA, Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 97.855 - High Jan 10 
*RES 1: 97.815 - High Jan 31
*PRICE: 97.790 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24 now support 
*SUP 2: 97.705 - Low Jan 31 
*SUP 3: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19 
*SUP 4: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Wednesday eased immediate bearish pressure and
sees the contract flirting with the 21-DMA (97.791). Initial support is now
noted at 97.770 with bulls now focused on 97.855-906 where key DMAs are located
until a close below 97.770 is seen. Below 97.770 sees focus return to the
97.690-705 support region. Above the 55-DMA is needed to shift initial focus to
the 200-DMA (98.004) and overall focus to Nov highs (98.110).
     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200 Resistance Now Key 
*RES 4: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance
*RES 3: 97.2167 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24
*RES 1: 97.1950 - High Jan 31
*PRICE: 97.1700 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.1450 - Low Jan 31
*SUP 2: 97.1050 - 2018 Low Jan 22
*SUP 3: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 4: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows is less than ideal given daily
studies correcting from O/S and sees pressure back on key resistance layers.
Bulls now need a close above 97.2200 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift
initial focus to 97.2800-4000 where the bear channel top and key DMAs are
located. Initial support is now seen at 97.1450 with bears needing a close below
to ease pressure on the 21-DMA.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Above 122-04+ To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance
*RES 3: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26
*RES 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*RES 1: 121-31 Low Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: 121-19 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 121-11+ Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 121-10+ 2018 Low Jan 31
*SUP 3: 121-04+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows lack follow through which is a concern
given O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls
need a close above 122-04+ to hint at a correction to 122-20/22+ with above the
21-DMA (122-22+) to shift focus to 123-05+/21+ where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears
initially focus on 120-25+ while the 21-DMA caps but need a close below 121-10+
to add weight to their case.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.654-676 Support Region Key
*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 
*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 
*RES 2: 2.802 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 2.754 - 2018 High Jan 31
*PRICE: 2.726 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 
*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 
*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs
with immediate bullish focus on 2.802-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014 highs
(Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.756) is a concern and currently limits follow
through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.676
to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to 2.571-609
where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.
     JGB TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 150.46 
*RES 4: 150.56 - High Jan 15
*RES 3: 150.46 - High Jan 26
*RES 2: 150.44 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: 150.38 - Hourly support Jan 26 now resistance
*PRICE: 150.31 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.27 - Hourly support Jan 31 
*SUP 2: 150.12 - 2018 Low Jan 30 
*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3 
*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA
with bulls now needing a close above 150.46 to ease bearish pressure. Above the
200-DMA (150.63) is needed to hint at a shift higher in focus with above 150.84
to target 151.19 Nov highs. Bears focus on a the close below 150.06 needed to
add weight to the case for a move targeting the 200-WMA (149.22).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]