MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

14 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 97.830 

*RES 4: 97.954 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 97.910 - High Feb 7 

*RES 2: 97.890 - High Feb 9 

*RES 1: 97.872 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 97.865 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.830 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: 97.790 - Low Feb 8, 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 97.755 - Low Feb 5 

*SUP 4: 97.705 - Low Jan 31

*COMMENTARY: The contract is currently pressuring the 55-DMA with bulls needing

a close above 97.905 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift focus to

97.960-98.015 where the 200-DMA (97.991) is noted. Initial support is noted at

97.830 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure on resistance layers

and shift initial focus back to the 21-DMA. Daily studies at O/B levels remain a

concern for bulls.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.1850-2350 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: 97.2350 - High Feb 6

*RES 3: 97.2000 - Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 2: 97.1850 - High Feb 9

*RES 1: 97.1517 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 97.1500 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1250 - Hourly support Feb 13

*SUP 2: 97.0750 - Low Feb 9

*SUP 3: 97.0700 - Hourly support Feb 5

*SUP 4: 97.0450 - 2018 Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base comes in around 96.9939 this week with

bulls taking comfort in support emerging on dips back towards this level. Bears

look for a close below 96.9650 to confirm a break of the channel base and

potentially target 95.5895. Bulls need a close above 97.1850 to ease immediate

bearish pressure and above 97.2350 to shift focus to 97.2806-3369 where 100 &

200-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 121-23

*RES 4: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-05+ Hourly resistance Feb 6a

*RES 2: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6, 21-DMA

*RES 1: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 121-02+ @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 120-26+ Low Feb 13

*SUP 2: 120-17  2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 120-13+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 lows remains a concern for bears when

combined with daily studies correcting from O/S levels. In saying that, bulls

now need a close above 121-23 to ease bearish pressure and above 122-20 to shift

initial focus to 123-03+/20 where the 55-DMA (123-03+) is noted. While 121-23

caps bears remain focused on the break of 120-17 needed to target the

117-29/119-24 support region where levels last seen in 2011 are noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Looking A Little Offered

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.902 - 2018 High Feb 12 

*RES 2: 2.873 - Hourly support Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.853 - Hourly resistance Feb 13

*PRICE: 2.831 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.822 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 4: 2.721 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on recent 2018 & 4yr highs has

left the yield looking a little heavy with correcting very O/B daily studies

seen weighing. The 2.741-786 support region is key today. Bears need a close

below 2.741 to shift initial focus back to 2.712-721 where the 21-DMA and bull

channel base are situated. Below the bear channel base (2.712) targets the

55-DMA (2.536). Bulls need a close above 2.873 to gain breathing room.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA 

*RES 4: 150.84 - 2018 High Jan 4

*RES 3: 150.66 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: 150.63 - High Feb 6, 100-DMA

*RES 1: 150.60 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: 150.56 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.52 - Hourly support Feb 13 

*SUP 2: 150.47 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: 150.39 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 150.34 - High Feb 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows remains capped around key DMAs. Bears

now need a close below 150.47 to ease pressure on DMAs and below 150.34 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA (150.39), returning focus to 150.06. Bears need a

close below 150.06 to add weight to the case for a move targeting the 200-WMA

(149.27). Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to 150.84.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]