MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

7 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA 

*RES 4: 98.015 - Alternating daily support resistance 

*RES 3: 97.986 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 97.968 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 97.900 - Hourly resistance Mar 6

*PRICE: 97.900 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.870 - Low Mar 6 

*SUP 2: 97.833 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 97.790 - Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 97.755 - Low Feb 5

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA and 200-WMA have

taken their toll and currently weigh on the contract. Bears continue to look for

a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to 2018 lows with a close below

97.790 to confirm. Layers of resistance accumulating are now weighing with bulls

needing a close above 98.015 to shift initial focus to 98.111-132 where the

100-WMA and Nov highs are noted.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA 

*RES 4: 97.3193 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: 97.3168 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: 97.3050 - High Mar 2

*RES 1: 97.2450 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 97.2000 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1750 - Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support

*SUP 2: 97.1683 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 97.1250 - Low Feb 22

*SUP 4: 97.0800 - Low Feb 21

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation around the 100-DMA (97.2847) and ahead of the

200-DMA have taken their toll with immediate pressure back on the 21-DMA. Bears

still need a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 97.0167-0450 where

2018 lows and the LT bull channel base off 2008 lows are noted. Initial

resistance remains at 97.2450 with bulls needing a close above to return

pressure to the 200-DMA.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-21+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-24+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*RES 1: 120-07  Hourly support Mar 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-01 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 2: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 118-17+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining

capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to

shift initial focus to 121-21+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. The break of

120-00 Monday adds to bearish confidence with a close below 119-21 remaining

needed to confirm focus on 118-17+/24 where the bear channel base that has

defined 2018 so far is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.947 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.875 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.853 - Hourly resistance Mar 5 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-668 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) Above 151.19 To Target 2017 High 

*RES 4: 151.51 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22

*RES 2: 151.17 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2

*PRICE: 151.04 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.89 - Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support 

*SUP 2: 150.73 - Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 150.55 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: 150.51 - Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: Last week's volatility has resulted in pressure returning to the

151.17-19 region where the Bollinger band top is situated. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 151.19 to initially target 151.51 2017 highs. The

Bollinger band top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Bears now need a close below 150.89 to ease bullish pressure and below

150.47 to target 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]