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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis
7 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 98.015 - Alternating daily support resistance
*RES 3: 97.986 - 200-WMA
*RES 2: 97.968 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: 97.900 - Hourly resistance Mar 6
*PRICE: 97.900 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.870 - Low Mar 6
*SUP 2: 97.833 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.790 - Low Feb 8
*SUP 4: 97.755 - Low Feb 5
*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA and 200-WMA have
taken their toll and currently weigh on the contract. Bears continue to look for
a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to 2018 lows with a close below
97.790 to confirm. Layers of resistance accumulating are now weighing with bulls
needing a close above 98.015 to shift initial focus to 98.111-132 where the
100-WMA and Nov highs are noted.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: 97.3193 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: 97.3168 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: 97.3050 - High Mar 2
*RES 1: 97.2450 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance
*PRICE: 97.2000 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.1750 - Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support
*SUP 2: 97.1683 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.1250 - Low Feb 22
*SUP 4: 97.0800 - Low Feb 21
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation around the 100-DMA (97.2847) and ahead of the
200-DMA have taken their toll with immediate pressure back on the 21-DMA. Bears
still need a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 97.0167-0450 where
2018 lows and the LT bull channel base off 2008 lows are noted. Initial
resistance remains at 97.2450 with bulls needing a close above to return
pressure to the 200-DMA.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-21+ 55-DMA
*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7
*RES 2: 120-24+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)
*RES 1: 120-07 Hourly support Mar 2 now resistance
*PRICE: 120-01 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 119-21 Repeated Daily lows Feb
*SUP 2: 119-14 Monthly Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011
*SUP 4: 118-17+ Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining
capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to
shift initial focus to 121-21+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. The break of
120-00 Monday adds to bearish confidence with a close below 119-21 remaining
needed to confirm focus on 118-17+/24 where the bear channel base that has
defined 2018 so far is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21
*RES 2: 2.947 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27
*PRICE: 2.875 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.853 - Hourly resistance Mar 5 now support
*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2
*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9
*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less
than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to
capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key
supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift
focus back to 2.609-668 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above
2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.
JGB TECHS: (H18) Above 151.19 To Target 2017 High
*RES 4: 151.51 - 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 3: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22
*RES 2: 151.17 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2
*PRICE: 151.04 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.89 - Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support
*SUP 2: 150.73 - Hourly support Mar 2
*SUP 3: 150.55 - Low Mar 2
*SUP 4: 150.51 - Low Feb 15
*COMMENTARY: Last week's volatility has resulted in pressure returning to the
151.17-19 region where the Bollinger band top is situated. Bulls continue to
look for a close above 151.19 to initially target 151.51 2017 highs. The
Bollinger band top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow
through. Bears now need a close below 150.89 to ease bullish pressure and below
150.47 to target 2018 lows.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.