MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

14 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) 55-DMA Support Key This Week 

*RES 4: 97.990 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 97.957 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.908 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 97.880 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 97.870 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.835 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 97.813 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 97.790 - Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 97.755 - Low Feb 5

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA and 200-WMA has

taken its toll and saw pressure on the 55-DMA. Bears look for a close below the

55-DMA to hint at a move back to 2018 lows with a close below 97.790 to confirm.

The 21-DMA is currently capping but bulls look for a close above the 100-DMA to

gain breathing room and above 98.015 to shift initial focus to 98.110-130 where

the 100-WMA and Nov highs are noted.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 97.2450 

*RES 4: 97.3167 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: 97.3103 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: 97.3050 - High Mar 2

*RES 1: 97.2450 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 97.2325 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1889 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 97.1750 - Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support

*SUP 3: 97.1250 - Low Feb 22

*SUP 4: 97.0800 - Low Feb 21

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA and 97.1750 support has so far failed to

produce the close below needed to shift focus back to 97.0200-0450 where 2018

lows and the LT bull channel base off 2008 lows are noted. Key resistance

remains at 97.2450 with bulls needing a close above to return pressure to the

200-DMA & 55-WMA (97.3103-3167). The Bollinger top is noted at 97.3063 and has

the potential to limit follow through on a break higher.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Band Top Capping

*RES 4: 121-11+ High Feb 7

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 1: 120-17+ Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 120-12 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 120-02+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 2: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 3: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 4: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top (120-10) off 2018 highs lacked

follow through with the Bollinger top seen capping. Narrowing Bollinger bands

hint at a break out in the near future. Bulls now need a close above 120-23 to

gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 122-02. The

21-DMA is supporting but bears now need a close below 119-26+ to initially focus

on 119-14 with overall focus on 118-24.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Dominate While 2.925 Caps

*RES 4: 2.936 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 1: 2.883 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: 2.844 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.830 - Low Mar 13 

*SUP 2: 2.818 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The yield is looking a little heavy with the recovery from 2.793

likely to have come to an end. Bulls now need a close above 2.925 to regain the

upper hand and above 2.957 to return focus to 3.041 2014 highs. In saying that,

the 2.758 support remains key. Bears need a close below this level to end

bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696-710 where the 55-DMA is

noted. Overall focus shifts to 2.585-648.

     JGB TECHS: (M18) 150.55 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: 150.90 - Low Mar 9 now resistance

*RES 3: 150.87 - Monthly High Nov 22

*RES 2: 150.78 - High Mar 9

*RES 1: 150.70 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: 150.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.61 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 150.59 - Bollinger Band Base 

*SUP 3: 150.55 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: 150.36 - High Feb 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 150.55 support is now key with bears needing a close below to

shift initial focus to 150.36 and overall focus back to 150.08-09 where 2018 and

Oct lows are noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to

gain breathing room and above 150.78 to shift focus back to 150.87-90. Overall

above 151.19 is needed to target 151.51 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]