MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 97.770 

*RES 4: 97.828 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: 97.812 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.770 - Lows May 9 & 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: 97.750 - Lows May 3 & 4 now resistance

*PRICE: 97.715 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.682 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 97.675 - 2018 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 15 2015 

*SUP 4: 97.510 - High Nov 25 2014 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55 & 100-DMAs has taken its toll with a

sell-off that sees immediate focus back on tests of 2018 lows. Daily studies are

well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears now look for a close below 97.675 to

shift focus to 97.605 2015 lows. Bulls now need a close above 97.770 to ease

bearish pressure, confirm a break of the 21-DMA (97.757) and shift initial focus

to 97.812-865 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M18) Flirting With LT Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: 97.2223 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: 97.1800 - Low May 10 now resistance

*RES 2: 97.1500 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 97.1000 - Hourly resistance May 17

*PRICE: 97.0750 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.0674 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 97.0450 - 2018 Low Feb 6

*SUP 3: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10 2017

*SUP 4: 96.9650 - Monthly Low Dec 2015

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the LT weekly bull channel base (97.0873) with

bears looking for a close below 97.0450 2018 lows to hint at a break with below

96.9650 needed to confirm and initially target 96.7950 2015 lows. Daily studies

remain well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above 97.1000

to gain breathing room and above 97.1800 to shift focus back to key DMAs

97.2202-2712.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 119-10+ 21-DMA

*RES 3: 119-07  High May 15

*RES 2: 118-31  Low Apr 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 118-25+ High May 16

*PRICE: 118-15 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 118-10+ 2018 Low May 17

*SUP 2: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*SUP 3: 117-22+ 2011 Low Feb 9

*SUP 4: 117-07+ Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation around the 21-DMA provided the impetus

for fresh 2018 & 7yr lows. Bears focus attention on the weekly bear channel base

coming in around 117-07+. Daily studies now approaching O/S is less than ideal

but layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close

above 118-31 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to pressure

119-31/120-06+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.058

*RES 4: 3.249 - High May 12 2011 

*RES 3: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 2: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 1: 3.128 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 3.115 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 3.087 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: 3.058 - Low May 16 

*SUP 3: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 4: 2.986 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated fresh 2018 & 7yr highs continue this week with bulls

initially focused on layers of resistance 3.184-3.249 where channel tops and

July 2011 monthly high are situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than

ideal for bulls with the Bollinger top (3.089) also a concern. Bears now look

for a close below 3.058 to gain breathing room and below 3.011 to shift focus

back to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA (2.889) is located.

     JGB TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 151.03 - High Apr 12

*RES 3: 150.95 - Low Apr 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 150.85 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: 150.75 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 150.67 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 150.62 - Low May 16 

*SUP 2: 150.53 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 150.52 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 150.39 - Monthly Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to gain traction below the 200-DMA

(150.71) with downside follow through lacking. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 55-DMA to shift focus to layers of resistance Y150.95-151.06.

While the 55-DMA caps bears focus on 150.36-39 but now need a close below 150.62

to add weight to their case. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]