MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 July 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7934 & $0.8018 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015 

*RES 3: $0.8093 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 1: $0.8018 - Hourly resistance July 27

*PRICE: $0.7978 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7934 - Low July 28 

*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 26mth highs

last week remains a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies looking

to correct from O/B and momentum divergence. Bears need a close below $0.7934 to

shift focus back to $0.7838-74. A close below $0.7838 is needed to end bullish

hopes and shift focus back to $0.7749-90 where the 21-DMA ($0.7780) is located.

Bulls need a close above $0.8018 to reconfirm focus on $0.8163.

KIWI TECHS: $0.7458 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7577 - High May 5 2015 

*RES 3: $0.7528 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 2: $0.7536 - Hourly resistance July 27a 

*RES 1: $0.7524 - High July 28

*PRICE: $0.7500 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7458 - High July 21 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7408 - Low July 26

*SUP 3: $0.7391 - Low July 21

*SUP 4: $0.7384 - Hourly support July 20

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2017 and 26mth highs last

week was less than ideal for bulls given daily studies looking to correct from

O/B. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7458 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and to shift focus back to $0.7391-0.7408. Layers of resistance

are starting to build with bulls needing a close above $0.7536 to retain focus

on $0.7577-0.7614 where 2015 highs and the bull channel top are located.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus Remains On The 200-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0731 - Low July 20 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0713 - High July 26

*RES 2: NZ$1.0680 - High July 27

*RES 1: NZ$1.0655 - Hourly resistance July 27

*PRICE: NZ$1.0624 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0613 - Low July 28

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0606 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0593 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0548 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0671) continues with the

failure to trouble NZ$1.0731 leaving the pair looking heavy and pressure on

layers of support NZ$1.0548-1.0606 where key DMAs are clustered. Bears look for

a close below the 55-DMA to confirm focus on retests of 2017 lows. Bulls now

look for a close above NZ$1.0680 to gain breathing room but a close above

NZ$1.0731 remains needed to shift focus back to NZ$1.0845 July highs so far.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y88.17 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y89.68 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y89.47 - Low Dec 7 2015 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y89.41 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 1: Y88.81 - High July 28

*PRICE: Y88.67 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: Y88.17 - Low July 26

*SUP 2: Y87.59 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: Y87.45 - Hourly support July 13

*SUP 4: Y87.24 - High Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 17mth highs lacked follow through Thursday which is

less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B. The Y88.17

support remains key with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to

Y87.45-59 where the 21-DMA is located. Below Y87.48 is now needed to shift focus

back to Y85.67. Bulls need a close above Y88.81 today to gain breathing room and

retain immediate focus on fresh 2017 highs.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.4771-1.4858 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: A$1.4926 - Low July 11 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.4858 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.4797 - Low July 4 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.4771 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.4714 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.4643 - Low July 28 

*SUP 2: A$1.4602 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.4594 - Hourly support July 27 

*SUP 4: A$1.4565 - Low July 27

*COMMENTARY: Repeated hesitation ahead of the A$1.4797 and 21 & 55 DMAs is

taking its toll with the pair dipping below the 100-DMA Thursday. Bears now look

for a close below A$1.4565 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and focus on

A$1.4399-1.4422 where the 200-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above A$1.4797 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA to

shift focus back to A$1.5078.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.602 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 94.357 - Hourly resistance July 21 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 1: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 93.259 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.152 - 2017 Low July 27

*SUP 2: 93.019 - Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 3: 92.266 - 200-WMA

*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's lack of downside follow

through with bears reasserting dominance and immediate pressure on 2017 lows and

overall focus on 91.919-92.266 where the 200-WMA is located. O/S daily studies

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 93.650 to gain

breathing room and above 94.602 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and

shift focus to 95.048-95.464 where the 21-DMA (95.078) is noted.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.1870 High Jan 12 2015 

*RES 3: $1.1814 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.1797 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1.1776 2017High July 27

*PRICE: $1.1748 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1704 Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 2: $1.1671 Low July 28 

*SUP 3: $1.1648 Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1648 support confirmed significance Friday with the pair

supported ahead resulting in a bullish close that sees immediate focus on

$1.1776-1.1870 where the bull channel top & 200-WMA are situated. O/B daily

studies and the Bollinger top ($1.1770) are key concerns for bulls. Bears now

need a close below $1.1704 to ease pressure on the 200-WMA and below $1.1648 to

pressure the key $1.1583-1.1611 support region.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Close Below Y110.34 Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y112.14 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 1: Y110.85 Hourly resistance July 28

*PRICE: Y110.64 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.52 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y110.34 High June 14 now support 

*SUP 3: Y110.52 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: Y109.60 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Focus returned to Y110.34-62 following the rejection above the

200-DMA (Y112.14) Wednesday with bears needing a close below Y110.34 to shift

initial focus to the 55-WMA and overall focus to 2017 lows. O/S daily studies

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls need a close above Y111.39 to gain

breathing room and above Y111.70 to shift immediate focus to Y112.14-112.87. A

close above Y112.87 remains needed to end bearish hopes and target Y114.50.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus On $1280.8

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 1: $1269.3 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1268.8 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 2: $1257.0 - Low July 28 

*SUP 3: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $1242.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip Wednesday with gold finding

support ahead of $1242.4 and resulting in a close above the $1258.8 resistance

that shifted initial focus ton $1280.8 and overall focus on tests of 2017 highs.

The Bollinger top is the key concern and currently caps. Layers of support

remain with bears needing a close below $1252.7 to ease bullish pressure and

below $1242.4 to shift focus lower.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]