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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
3 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7934 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1
*RES 2: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*PRICE: $0.7964 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7934 - Low July 28
*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25
*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21
*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and relatively bearish
closes is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B. The
$0.7934 support remains key. Bears look for a close below this level to confirm
an easing of bullish pressure and see initial focus back to $0.7838-74. Bulls
still need a close above $0.8015 to gain breathing room and a close above
$0.8065 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target $0.8163.
KIWI TECHS: Bears Target $0.7334-84 While $0.7458 Caps
*RES 4: $0.7558 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 3: $0.7524 - High July 28
*RES 2: $0.7496 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*RES 1: $0.7458 - High July 21, Hourly resistance Aug 2
*PRICE: $0.7433 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7408 - Low July 26
*SUP 2: $0.7391 - Low July 21
*SUP 3: $0.7384 - Hourly support July 20
*SUP 4: $0.7379 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2017 and 26mth highs has left
the pair looking a little heavy with consolidation below $0.7458 increasing the
risk of a test of $0.7334-84 where the 21-DMA is located. Bears now need a close
below $0.7334 to confirm a break of the bull channel base ($0.7353) and confirm
focus on $0.7203-67. Bulls now need a close above $0.7548 to gain breathing room
and ease pressure on $0.7408.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0650-94 Support Region Key
*RES 4: NZ$1.0882 - Low May 1 now resistance
*RES 3: NZ$1.0845 - Monthly High July 20
*RES 2: NZ$1.0827 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: NZ$1.0733 - High Aug 2
*PRICE: NZ$1.0722 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0694 - Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - Low Aug 2
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0620 - 21-DMA, Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: The pair found support on a dip below the 21 & 200-DMA Monday with
gains continuing and immediate focus now on NZ$1.0733. Bulls need a close above
NZ$1.0733 to confirm focus on tests of NZ$1.0845 July highs. Daily studies are
well placed for gains. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0694 to gain breathing
room and below NZ$1.0588 to shift immediate pressure back to the 55-DMA
(NZ$1.0550).
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y87.45 & Y88.37 Levels Key Today
*RES 4: Y89.47 - Low Dec 7 2015 now resistance
*RES 3: Y89.41 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 2: Y88.81 - High July 28
*RES 1: Y88.37 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*PRICE: Y88.19 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: Y87.93 - Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: Y87.85 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: Y87.78 - Low Aug 1
*SUP 4: Y87.45 - Hourly support July 13
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is now supporting with the Y87.45 support remaining key.
Bears continue to look for a close below Y87.45 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA
and shift focus back to Y85.67. Layers of resistance remain which is a concern
for bulls who need a close above Y88.37 to gain breathing room and above Y88.81
to return immediate focus to 2017 highs.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: A$1.5227 - 2017 High June 1
*RES 3: A$1.5075 - High July 6
*RES 2: A$1.4969 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: A$1.4924 - Low July 11 now resistance
*PRICE: A$1.4880 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.4858 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: A$1.4818 - Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 3: A$1.4749 - Hourly support Aug 1
*SUP 4: A$1.4680 - Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 55-DMA that sees
immediate focus on the A$1.4924-1.5075 region where monthly highs and the daily
bear channel top are situated. Bears now look for a close below A$1.4818 to gain
breathing room and below A$1.4749 to shift focus back to A$1.1.4565-1.4680 where
the 100-DMA (A$1.4622) is located. Daily studies have room to move before O/B
becomes an issue.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.650
*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26
*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27
*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31
*PRICE: 92.890 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2
*SUP 2: 92.400 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 92.330 - 200-WMA
*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth lows lacked follow through with support
emerging ahead of the 200-WMA less than ideal given daily studies looking to
correct from O/S. Initial resistance is noted at 93.161 with bulls needing a
close above to gain breathing room whereas above 93.650 is needed to shift
immediate focus back to 94.465-607 where the 21-DMA is situated. Bears now need
a close below 91.919 to reconfirm a bearish bias targeting 86.80-87.65.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014
*RES 3: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2
*RES 2: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2
*RES 1: $1.1889 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $1.1856 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1818 Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: $1.1784 Low Aug 1
*SUP 3: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support
*SUP 4: $1.1723 Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: Despite fresh 2017 highs the lack of topside follow through is a
concern for bulls when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B
and the proximity of the Bollinger band top. In saying that, the $1.1763 support
remains key with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below
$1.1704 to confirm focus on $1.1611-48. Bulls look for a close above 2017 highs
to reconfirm the bullish bias.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Increased Correction Risk
*RES 4: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance
*RES 3: Y111.56 55-DMA
*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27
*RES 1: Y110.98 High Aug 2
*PRICE: Y110.72 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.28 Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: Y109.91 Low Aug 1
*SUP 3: Y109.70 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y109.25 Low June 15
*COMMENTARY: Correction risk has increased when the lack of follow through on
Aug 1 is combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/S, daily momentum
divergence and support emerging on dips. Bears now need a close below Y109.91 to
reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on Y108.15-69. Layers of resistance remain
with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher in focus
with above Y112.87 needed to target Y114.50-115.50.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1251.2-1262.2 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6
*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14
*RES 2: $1280.3 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: $1274.0 - High Aug 1
*PRICE: $1266.1 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28
*SUP 2: $1257.0 - Low July 28
*SUP 3: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support
*SUP 4: $1252.0 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls who are
initially focused on $1280.8 with overall focus on tests of 2017 highs. The
$1251.2-1262.2 support region remains key. Bears look for a close below $1262.2
to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to shift focus to the $1242.4
support. Bulls now need a close above $1280.8 to reconfirm a bullish bias and
target 2017 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.