MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7838 & $0.7949 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 3: $0.7949 - High Aug 7

*RES 2: $0.7928 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7919 - Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7891 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17

*SUP 3: $0.7749 - Hourly support July 14a

*SUP 4: $0.7706 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The key $0.7838 support confirmed significance last week having

remained unbroken under pressure. Overall a close below $0.7838 is needed to

shift focus to $0.7749-0.7781. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7949

to hint at a move back to $0.8044-65 with above $0.7998 needed to confirm. Daily

studies have room to move before O/S is an issue but the Bollinger base

($0.7826) remains the key concern.

KIWI TECHS: 21-DMA Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7404 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7391 - Low July 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7377 - Hourly resistance Aug 7 

*RES 1: $0.7342 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $0.7320 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7292 - Hourly resistance Aug 11 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7250 - Low July 17

*SUP 3: $0.7203 - Monthly Low July 11

*SUP 4: $0.7170 - Low June 7

*COMMENTARY: The break and close below the daily bull channel base and 21-DMA

added weight to the bearish case with bears needing a close below $0.7250 to

shift focus to $0.7115-0.7203 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated. The Bollinger

base ($0.7263) and studies approaching O/S are key concerns for bears. In saying

that, bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift

focus back to $0.7458-0.7577.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above NZ$1.0882

*RES 4: NZ$1.0935 - Monthly High May 1

*RES 3: NZ$1.0882 - Low May 1 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0861 - High Aug 10

*RES 1: NZ$1.0816 - Hourly resistance Aug 11

*PRICE: NZ$1.0783 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0708 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0703 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0691 - Low Aug 10

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0660 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite initially looking heavy Thursday, the pair found support

ahead of the 21-DMA and daily bull channel base which provided the catalyst for

the rally to fresh 3mth highs. The lack of follow through Friday and relatively

bearish close eased immediate bullish pressure with the $1.0691-1.0708 support

region key. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0691 to confirm breaks of key

supports and pressure key DMAs NZ$1.0561-1.0660.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Supported Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y87.24 - Hourly support Aug 9a now resistance 

*RES 3: Y87.10 - High Aug 10 

*RES 2: Y86.78 - Hourly resistance Aug 10a 

*RES 1: Y86.30 - Hourly resistance Aug 10

*PRICE: Y86.08 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: Y85.82 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: Y85.46 - Low July 5

*SUP 3: Y85.02 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: Y84.75 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA (Y87.96) capped last week and set the scene for losses.

The dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Friday which is less than ideal

for bears who are now focused on 100 & 200-DMAs and daily studies looking to

correct from O/S. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above

Y86.30 to gain breathing room and above Y87.24 to shift focus to Y87.96-88.03

where the 21-DMA is noted.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Focused On A$1.5033-1.5224 

*RES 4: A$1.5075 - High July 6

*RES 3: A$1.5033 - High July 11

*RES 2: A$1.5028 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5011 - High Aug 1

*PRICE: A$1.4976 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.4936 - Low Aug 11 

*SUP 2: A$1.4891 - Hourly support Aug 10 

*SUP 3: A$1.4871 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: A$1.4818 - Hourly support Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the bear channel top (A$1.4929) took its toll with the

close above providing bullish confidence a boost. The close above A$1.4965 adds

support to the bullish case with bulls now focused on A$ A$1.5033-1.5224 where

monthly highs and the bull channel top are located. Initial support is noted at

A$1.4936 today with bears needing a close below to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below A$1.4891 shift focus back to A$1.4764-1.4844.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Caps Recovery

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.888 - High Aug 9 

*RES 1: 93.507 - High Aug 11

*PRICE: 93.059 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 2: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 3: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*SUP 4: 92.388 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from recent 2017 lows the move stalled ahead of

the 21-DMA (93.656) with bulls now needing a close above 93.888 to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and above 94.476 to target 95.167-502 where the

55-DMA is located. The close below 93.061 reconfirms immediate bearish focus on

2017 lows and the 91.919-92.548 region overall where the 200-WMA, 2016 & 2017

lows are situated.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 

*RES 2: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 1: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now support

*PRICE: $1.1821 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1787 Hourly support Aug 11 

*SUP 2: $1.1747 Low Aug 11 

*SUP 3: $1.1706 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 Low Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA and the bullish close Friday and look for a close above $1.1861 to

confirm focus on $1.1909-79 where 2017 highs and the bull channel top are noted.

Support layers are starting to accumulate with bears now needing a close below

$1.1747 to retain pressure on the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below $1.1690 to

add weight to their case for a move that initially targets $1.1583-1.1648.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.25 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y110.82 High Aug 8 

*RES 3: Y110.59 Hourly resistance Aug 8 

*RES 2: Y110.25 Low Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.58 Low Aug 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.20 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 2: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.91 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The Y110.25 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the

pair remaining capped ahead of this level resulting in fresh 2mth lows and bears

firmly focused on tests of Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are noted. The Bollinger

base (Y109.06) is the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are building

and weighing with bulls needing a close above Y109.58 to gain breathing room and

above Y110.25 to shift focus back to Y110.94-111.38 where key DMAs are noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus On 2017 High, $1270.0 Support Key

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1293.2 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $1289.2 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1288.8 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.8 - High June 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - Hourly support Aug 10a 

*SUP 3: $1270.0 - Hourly support Aug 9 

*SUP 4: $1263.4 - Hourly support Aug 9a

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA ($1258.9) Tuesday provided the

base for a move that has taken out $1280.8 with immediate focus now on 2017

highs. Layers of support continue to build with bears needing a close below

$1270.0 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to

$1253.7-1258.9 where key DMAs and the daily bull channel base are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]