MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7743-83 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7938 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7883 - Hourly resistance Sept 27 

*RES 1: $0.7861 - High Sept 28

*PRICE: $0.7834 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7783 - Low Oct 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17, 21-WMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7771 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7743 - High July 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Consolidation below the 55-DMA has seen the pair trade at fresh

3mth lows before again finding support ahead of the 21-WMA and 100-DMA which is

a concern for bears given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bears look

for a close below $0.7743 to confirm breaks of key MAs and to shift focus to the

200-DMA ($0.7655). Bulls look for a close above $0.7861 to gain breathing room

and above the 21-DMA ($0.7954) to shift focus back to $0.8036-0.8125.

KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7128

*RES 4: $0.7252 - Low Sept 25 now resistance, 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7250 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $0.7218 - Hourly resistance Oct 2 

*RES 1: $0.7187 - Hourly support Oct 2 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7158 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7151 - 200-DMA, Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: $0.7128 - Low Aug 31

*SUP 3: $0.7035 - Low May 30

*SUP 4: $0.6967 - Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through resulted in pressure returning to

the $0.7128-0.7151 support region where the 200-DMA is situated. Bears continue

to look for a close below $0.7128 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift

overall focus to tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above $0.7252 to

confirm breaks of 21 & 100-DMAs, easing bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA

($0.7302) to return focus to $0.7377-0.7458.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0798 & NZ$1.1025 Levels Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1025 - Hourly support Sept 15 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0994 - High Sept 18

*RES 2: NZ$1.0978 - High Sept 20

*RES 1: NZ$1.0967 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0943 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0925 - Hourly support Oct 3

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0900 - Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0848 - Low Oct 2

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0821 - Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: Failure to manage the close below NZ$1.0798 needed to confirm a

break of the 55-DMA and initially target NZ$1.0699-1.0711 has resulted in a

bounce back towards layers of resistance NZ$1.0967-1.1025. Bulls continue to

look for a close above NZ$1.1025 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0967)

and shift focus back to 2017 highs. Correcting O/S studies add to the case for a

correction but NZ$1.1025 remains key.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bull Channel Base Key Support

*RES 4: Y89.73 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y89.05 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: Y88.90 - High Sept 27 

*RES 1: Y88.48 - Hourly resistance Sept 28

*PRICE: Y88.40 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.92 - Low Sept 29

*SUP 2: Y87.74 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: Y87.40 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: Y86.54 - Low Sept 6

*COMMENTARY: A bearish key day reversal following fresh 2017 highs in recent

weeks has been followed up with losses that see pressure returned to Y87.40-74

where the bull channel base and 55-DMA are situated. Bears need a close below

the bull channel base to shift focus to Y85.45-86.56 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

noted. Bulls still need a close above Y88.48 to gain breathing room and above

Y89.05 to shift focus back to Y89.73-90.31.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of A$1.5109 

*RES 4: A$1.5175 - High Aug 29

*RES 3: A$1.5109 - High Sept 22

*RES 2: A$1.5090 - Hourly resistance Sept 29

*RES 1: A$1.5055 - High Oct 3

*PRICE: A$1.4994 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.4949 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.4895 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.4893 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.4790 - Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to trade sideways in a broad A$1.4732-1.5172

range with topside follow through still lacking. Bulls continue to look for a

close above A$1.5109 to confirm focus on A$1.5172-1.5226 where 2017 highs are

situated. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to return pressure

to key supports and below the A$1.4790 support to target A$1.4537-65 where the

200-DMA (A$1.4539) is located.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: 94.145 - Monthly High Aug 16 

*RES 3: 93.950 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 93.920 - High Oct 3 

*RES 1: 93.794 - Hourly support Oct 3 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.556 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 93.431 - Low Oct 3

*SUP 2: 93.307 - Hourly support Oct 2a

*SUP 3: 93.083 - Hourly support Sept 29

*SUP 4: 92.981 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Tuesday is less than ideal given

the daily bull channel top capping, O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top

(93.662). The 93.431 support is now key with bears needing a close below to

shift immediate focus back to 92.724-981 where the 55-DMA is located. Bears

still need a close below 92.724 to hint at a move back to 91.526-781 with below

the 21-DMA (92.420) to confirm. Bulls focus on 94.145-658 while 92.724 supports.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1583-1.1661

*RES 4: $1.1833 Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1824 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.1793 Hourly resistance Oct 2 

*RES 1: $1.1780 Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1.1746 @ 1930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1730 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1696 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 3: $1.1675 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1661 Low Aug 17

*COMMENTARY: Recent failures around the 55-DMA and ahead of the $1.1862

resistance have resulted in fresh 2mth lows although follow through has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($1.1712). Bears currently focus on

$1.1583-1.1661 with the 100-DMA just beneath at $1.1577. O/S studies and the

Bolli base remain key concerns for bears. Bulls look for a close above $1.1780

to hint at a correction back to $1.1824-62.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 3: Y114.19 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y113.26 High Sept 27

*PRICE: Y112.90 @ 1930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.66 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 2: Y112.42 Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 3: Y112.22 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 4: Y111.98 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure again returning to the Y113.26

resistance with bulls needing a close above to add support to their case for a

test of July highs. Daily studies are at less than ideal levels which is the key

concern for bulls. In saying that, layers of support add to bullish confidence.

Bears need a close below Y112.22 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA

to hint at a move back to key DMAs Y110.54-111.06 with below Y111.48 to confirm.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1281.2-1296.4 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 3: $1290.3 - High Sept 29 

*RES 2: $1281.2 - Hourly support Sept 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1272.0 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1265.3 - High Aug 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $1250.5 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1249.9 - Monthly Low Aug 8 

*SUP 4: $1243.8 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Gold remains heavy with immediate focus on $1265.3. Bears look for

a close below $1265.3 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($1272.2) and shift

focus to $1239.2-1250.0 where the bull channel base and 200-DMA are situated.

Resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above $1281.2 to gain

breathing room and above $1296.4 to shift focus back to $1309.3-1320.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]