MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 January 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Bullish Focus On $7906

*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 2: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7857 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $0.7839 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7697 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the recovery from Dec lows closing above the

100-DMA ($0.7775) and shifting overall focus to 2017 highs. Bulls look for a

close above $0.7906 to add support to their case. Key supports remain with bears

needing a close below $0.7760 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close

below the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to

$0.7495-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.

KIWI TECHS: Struggling Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7243 - High Sept 29 

*RES 3: $0.7200 - High Oct 17 

*RES 2: $0.7174 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: $0.7130 - High Jan 2

*PRICE: $0.7102 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7073 - Hourly support Dec 28

*SUP 2: $0.7054 - Low Dec 28

*SUP 3: $0.7042 - High Dec 27 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7008 - Low Dec 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

55-DMA resulting in pops above the 200-DMA ($0.7105). Bulls need a close above

$0.7130 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to $0.7200-25. O/B daily studies

are the key concern for bulls. Support layers are building with bears needing a

close below $0.7054 to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7008 to target the

55-DMA ($0.6932).

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 55-DMA Key To Further Topside

*RES 4: NZ$1.1240 - High Oct 26

*RES 3: NZ$1.1185 - High Nov 1

*RES 2: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.1050 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.1037 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1008 - Low Jan 3

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0963 - Low Dec 26

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0923 - Low Dec 21

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0904 - Low Dec 18

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA and key WMAs NZ$1.0723-71 took its

toll with an aggressive bounce in previous weeks that eased bearish pressure.

Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to initially target NZ$1.1139. Bears need a

close below NZ$1.0963 to ease bullish pressure and below NZ$1.0904 to return

focus to NZ$1.0727-1.0858. Below the 100-WMA (NZ$1.0727) shifts focus back to

NZ$1.0364 June lows.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y87.52

*RES 4: Y89.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.40 - High Jan 2

*PRICE: Y88.14 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.52 - High Dec 22 now support

*SUP 2: Y87.12 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.55 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.28 - Hourly support Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue with pressure on the 100-DMA in recent weeks taking

its toll and the close above shifting overall focus to tests of 2017 highs

(Y90.30). O/B daily studies are the key concern for bulls with potential to

limit follow through. Bears need a close below Y87.52 to gain breathing room and

below the 55-DMA to shift initial focus back to Y85.94-95 where the 200-DMA is

situated.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: 21-DMA Resistance Confirming Significance 

*RES 4: A$1.5559 - High Dec 13

*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 2: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5440 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5336 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5319 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: A$1.5275 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: A$1.5195 - Low Nov 13 

*SUP 4: A$1.5193 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble the 100-DMA is less than ideal for bears

with the pair bouncing back towards the 21-DMA. Bulls still need a close above

the 21-DMA to hint at a move back to A$1.5694-1.5774 with above A$1.5526 to

confirm. While the 21-DMA caps bears retain the upper hand with a close below

the 100-DMA needed to see bears targeting the 200-DMA.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 2017 High

*RES 4: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*RES 2: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 1: $1.2035 Hourly resistance Jan 3

*PRICE: $1.2010 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1981 Hourly support Dec 29 

*SUP 2: $1.1961 High Nov 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1879 Hourly support Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued to start the new year although hesitation ahead of

2017 highs is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B

and the Bollinger band top ($1.2044). Bulls continue to look for a close above

the current 2017 high to initially target $1.2254. Layers of support are

accumulating but $1.1961 remains key. Bears need a close below $1.1961 to ease

bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below 200-DMA To Add Weight To Bearish Case

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 1: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.48 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 2: Y111.66 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in pressure currently on the Y110.83-111.98

support region with daily studies well placed for further losses. Bears now need

a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to their case. Bulls continue to look

for a close above Y113.13 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back

to Y113.74-114.07.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y134.78 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y135.96 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*PRICE: Y135.17 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.78 Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2+ year highs added support for a potential move targeting

Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y135.92) & O/B studies are key concerns for

bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears now needing a close

below Y134.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y133.88 to shift focus back to

Y132.03-132.83 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted. Immediate

bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/S Daily Studies A Concern

*RES 4: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28 

*RES 2: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.261 - High Jan 3

*PRICE: 92.166 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 91.751 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 91.526 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 3: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull

channel base (93.173) with the close below 92.496 confirming a return in focus

to tests of 2017 lows. O/S daily studies are less than ideal for bears. Bulls

now look for a close above 92.518 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above

the 55-DMA (93.682) to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to

95.167-464.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1302.5

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 1: $1321.3 - Hourly resistance Jan 3

*PRICE: $1311.2 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 2: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 3: $1287.6 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of $1320.0 is a concern for

bulls when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B and daily

momentum divergence. Bears look for a close below $1302.5 to ease bullish

pressure and below the 100-DMA to hint at a deeper sell-off with below the

55-DMA ($1276.4) confirming. Bulls now need a close above $1321.3 to confirm

focus on 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]