MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8162 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15

*RES 3: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 2: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*RES 1: $0.8125 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.8105 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8041 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 2: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls reconfirmed dominance following Thursday's topside rejection

with fresh 2018 and 2+ year highs. The $0.8162 resistance remains key. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542

where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8455) is noted. Layers of support continue

to follow the pair higher with bears needing a close below $0.7990 to ease

bullish pressure and below $0.7916 to shift focus lower.

KIWI TECHS: $0.7217-89 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7525 - High July 28 

*RES 3: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: $0.7391 - High Jan 25

*PRICE: $0.7344 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7289 - Low Jan 26

*SUP 2: $0.7266 - Low Jan 22

*SUP 3: $0.7243 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7217 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation defined the latter part of the week with bulls

needing a close above $0.7435 to reconfirm the bullish bias and target tests of

$0.7558 2017 highs. Correcting O/B daily studies remain the key concern for

bulls. The $0.7217-89 support region is key this week. Bears need a close below

$0.7289 to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7217 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and shift focus to $0.7042-0.7130 where key DMAs are clustered.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above 2018 Highs Target 2017 High

*RES 4: NZ$1.1290 - 2017 High Oct 24

*RES 3: NZ$1.1238 - High Oct 26

*RES 2: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.1052 - 2018 High Jan 3, Bollinger top

*PRICE: NZ$1.1026 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1003 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0987 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0932 - Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0844 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to the 200-DMA last week provided the

base for a move that saw closes above key DMAs Friday and immediate focus on

2017 highs. Bulls now look for a close above NZ$1.1052 to shift overall focus to

tests of 2017 highs. Daily studies have room to move before O/B is an issue.

Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

NZ$1.0932 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0824-44.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.46 - High Jan 26

*PRICE: Y88.18 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.68 - Low Jan 16

*SUP 2: Y87.35 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.75 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.39 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls again failed to take out Y89.09 with the correction leaving

the pair looking a little heavy. The 100-DMA is key support. Bears look for a

close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.75 where 55 & 200-DMAs

are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 to reconfirm a

bullish bias and target 2017 highs (Y90.30). The Bollinger band top (Y89.05) is

the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5263

*RES 4: A$1.5586 - Low Dec 7 Now Resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 2: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25

*RES 1: A$1.5367 - Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PRICE: A$1.5317 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5272 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5263 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA (A$1.5442) was brief with the close

below the 21-DMA seeing pressure now back on A$1.5263-72 where the 100-DMA is

noted. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to see focus back on

A$1.5062-1.5152 where the 200-DMA is situated. Bulls now look for a close above

A$1.5367 to ease pressure on support layers. Overall a close above A$1.5526 is

needed to target A$1.5774 2017 highs.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.019 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.723 - Low Jan 26

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.576 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Remaining capped ahead of 91.011 took its toll and resulted in a

break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting 88.125 Dec 2014

monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above 90.113 to

gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA (91.132) to shift focus to 92.615-963

where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2322 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 2: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 1: $1.2494 High Jan 26

*PRICE: $1.2427 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2362 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 2: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and hesitation ahead of $1.2569

remains less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the

Bollinger band top ($1.2494) limiting follow through. Bears look for a close

below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2172 where the 21-DMA

($1.2172) is noted. While $1.2322 supports bulls remain focused on the LT weekly

bear channel top around $1.2661.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.18 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y109.76 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: Y109.05 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PRICE: Y108.71 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 2: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 3: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs saw the pair

closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate

focus now on Y107.31-64 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are

located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y108.43) remain concerns. Bulls

need a close above Y110.18 to target a correction back to Y111.14-98 where key

DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y108.12 to add weight to their case.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Failures Weighing

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 1: Y135.46 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PRICE: Y135.01 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.53 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y134.02 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y133.86 Daily bull channel base (off Aug 18 low)

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the Y136.32-62 region have taken their

toll with a break of Y134.81 increasing the risk of a correction that initially

targets Y133.40-134.02 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are

situated. Initial resistance is noted at Y135.46 but bulls continue to look for

a close above Y136.62 to confirm focus on Y139.02-141.05 monthly highs last seen

in 2015.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1339.2 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17 

*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 1: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $1349.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1342.7 - Low Jan 25 

*SUP 2: $1339.2 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $1327.5 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018

& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close

above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The lack of topside follow through is a

concern when combined with modestly O/B studies. Bears now look for a close

below $1339.2 to add weight to the case for a correction back to the 21-DMA.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]