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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
29 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8162 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15
*RES 3: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015
*RES 2: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26
*RES 1: $0.8125 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $0.8105 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.8041 - Hourly support Jan 26
*SUP 2: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26
*SUP 3: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 4: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23
*COMMENTARY: Bulls reconfirmed dominance following Thursday's topside rejection
with fresh 2018 and 2+ year highs. The $0.8162 resistance remains key. Bulls
continue to look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542
where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8455) is noted. Layers of support continue
to follow the pair higher with bears needing a close below $0.7990 to ease
bullish pressure and below $0.7916 to shift focus lower.
KIWI TECHS: $0.7217-89 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $0.7525 - High July 28
*RES 3: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24
*RES 1: $0.7391 - High Jan 25
*PRICE: $0.7344 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7289 - Low Jan 26
*SUP 2: $0.7266 - Low Jan 22
*SUP 3: $0.7243 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7217 - Low Jan 12
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation defined the latter part of the week with bulls
needing a close above $0.7435 to reconfirm the bullish bias and target tests of
$0.7558 2017 highs. Correcting O/B daily studies remain the key concern for
bulls. The $0.7217-89 support region is key this week. Bears need a close below
$0.7289 to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7217 to confirm a break of the
21-DMA and shift focus to $0.7042-0.7130 where key DMAs are clustered.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above 2018 Highs Target 2017 High
*RES 4: NZ$1.1290 - 2017 High Oct 24
*RES 3: NZ$1.1238 - High Oct 26
*RES 2: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14
*RES 1: NZ$1.1052 - 2018 High Jan 3, Bollinger top
*PRICE: NZ$1.1026 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.1003 - 100-DMA
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0987 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0932 - Low Jan 25
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0844 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to the 200-DMA last week provided the
base for a move that saw closes above key DMAs Friday and immediate focus on
2017 highs. Bulls now look for a close above NZ$1.1052 to shift overall focus to
tests of 2017 highs. Daily studies have room to move before O/B is an issue.
Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below
NZ$1.0932 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0824-44.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21
*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25
*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23
*RES 1: Y88.46 - High Jan 26
*PRICE: Y88.18 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y87.68 - Low Jan 16
*SUP 2: Y87.35 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: Y86.75 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Y86.39 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls again failed to take out Y89.09 with the correction leaving
the pair looking a little heavy. The 100-DMA is key support. Bears look for a
close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.75 where 55 & 200-DMAs
are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 to reconfirm a
bullish bias and target 2017 highs (Y90.30). The Bollinger band top (Y89.05) is
the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5263
*RES 4: A$1.5586 - Low Dec 7 Now Resistance
*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20
*RES 2: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25
*RES 1: A$1.5367 - Hourly resistance Jan 26
*PRICE: A$1.5317 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5272 - 100-DMA
*SUP 2: A$1.5263 - Low Jan 18
*SUP 3: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support
*SUP 4: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11
*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA (A$1.5442) was brief with the close
below the 21-DMA seeing pressure now back on A$1.5263-72 where the 100-DMA is
noted. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to see focus back on
A$1.5062-1.5152 where the 200-DMA is situated. Bulls now look for a close above
A$1.5367 to ease pressure on support layers. Overall a close above A$1.5526 is
needed to target A$1.5774 2017 highs.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113
*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22
*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24
*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 89.019 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 88.723 - Low Jan 26
*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014
*SUP 4: 87.576 - Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Remaining capped ahead of 91.011 took its toll and resulted in a
break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting 88.125 Dec 2014
monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern. Layers of
resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above 90.113 to
gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA (91.132) to shift focus to 92.615-963
where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2322 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014
*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014
*RES 2: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25
*RES 1: $1.2494 High Jan 26
*PRICE: $1.2427 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2362 Low Jan 25
*SUP 2: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support
*SUP 3: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24
*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and hesitation ahead of $1.2569
remains less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the
Bollinger band top ($1.2494) limiting follow through. Bears look for a close
below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2172 where the 21-DMA
($1.2172) is noted. While $1.2322 supports bulls remain focused on the LT weekly
bear channel top around $1.2661.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.18 Resistance Key
*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance
*RES 2: Y109.76 High Jan 26
*RES 1: Y109.05 Hourly resistance Jan 26
*PRICE: Y108.71 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.27 Low Jan 26
*SUP 2: Y108.12 Low Sept 11
*SUP 3: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base
*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs saw the pair
closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate
focus now on Y107.31-64 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are
located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y108.43) remain concerns. Bulls
need a close above Y110.18 to target a correction back to Y111.14-98 where key
DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y108.12 to add weight to their case.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Failures Weighing
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5
*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8
*RES 1: Y135.46 Hourly resistance Jan 26
*PRICE: Y135.01 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.53 Low Jan 26
*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: Y134.02 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Y133.86 Daily bull channel base (off Aug 18 low)
*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the Y136.32-62 region have taken their
toll with a break of Y134.81 increasing the risk of a correction that initially
targets Y133.40-134.02 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are
situated. Initial resistance is noted at Y135.46 but bulls continue to look for
a close above Y136.62 to confirm focus on Y139.02-141.05 monthly highs last seen
in 2015.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1339.2 Support Now Key
*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17
*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016
*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 1: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: $1349.8 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1342.7 - Low Jan 25
*SUP 2: $1339.2 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 3: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 4: $1327.5 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018
& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close
above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The lack of topside follow through is a
concern when combined with modestly O/B studies. Bears now look for a close
below $1339.2 to add weight to the case for a correction back to the 21-DMA.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.