MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.8079

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*RES 2: $0.8118 - High Jan 29

*RES 1: $0.8079 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*PRICE: $0.8031 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8013 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7970 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 remains a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B. Bulls look for a close above $0.8079 to gain

breathing room and above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the

weekly bull channel top ($0.8456) is noted. The break of $0.8040 following

Wednesday's topside failure leaves the pair looking heavy and risks a correction

to $0.7916-72 where the 21-DMA is noted. Below $0.7916 targets $0.7729-0.7802.

KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: $0.7420 - High Jan 31 

*RES 1: $0.7403 - High Feb 1

*PRICE: $0.7385 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7325 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: $0.7279 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7266 - Low Jan 22

*SUP 4: $0.7217 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation continues with bulls needing a close above

$0.7435 to reconfirm the bullish bias and target tests of $0.7558 2017 highs.

Correcting O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls with topside

rejections weighing. Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease

bullish pressure and below $0.7217 to shift focus to $0.7042-0.7136 where key

DMAs are clustered.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0817-46 Under Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.1039 - High Jan 31

*RES 3: NZ$1.1000 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 1: NZ$1.0921 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*PRICE: NZ$1.0877 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0846 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0816 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0772 - 200-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0733 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2mth highs lacked follow through with Wednesday's

sell-off seeing the pair close below 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and return focus to

NZ$1.0817-46 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are noted. Overall bears need a close

below the 100-WMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus to NZ$1.0442 where the LT

rising TL is noted. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0960 to ease bearish

pressure.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Rejected Above 21-DMA, 100-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.50 - High Jan 31

*PRICE: Y87.93 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.45 - Low Jan 30

*SUP 2: Y87.34 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.88 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.49 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair has remained capped ahead of Y89.09 with follow through

above the 21-DMA (Y88.21) lacking. The 100-DMA remains key support. Bears look

for a close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.88 where 55 &

200-DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and target 2017 highs (Y90.30). Daily studies are at

neural levels and giving few clues.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Back In Control

*RES 4: A$1.5963 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5774 - 2017 High Dec 1

*RES 2: A$1.5695 - High Dec 7

*RES 1: A$1.5586 - Low Dec 7 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5558 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 2: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: A$1.5438 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5390 - Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with the 100-DMA bears failed to manage the close

below A$1.5256 needed to shift focus to A$1.5070-1.5141 where the 200-DMA is

found. The recovery has resulted in closes above key levels and bulls focused on

A$1.5695-1.5774 once more. Layers of support following the pair higher sees

bears needing a close below A$1.5469 to ease bullish pressure and below the

A$1.5390 to shift focus back to the 100-DMA.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 88.438 Targets 86.879-87.627

*RES 4: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 2: 89.637 - High Jan 30 

*RES 1: 89.328 - High Feb 1

*PRICE: 88.671 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 2: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 87.526 - Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy with immediate focus on 2018 lows and the

break lower needed to add weight to the case for a test of 86.879-87.627 where

the LT bear channel base and monthly lows are situated. O/S daily studies remain

a concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 86.637 to gain breathing room

and above the 21-DMA (90.538) to hint at a move back to 91.751.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 High

*RES 4: $1.2661 LT Weekly Bear Channel top (Off 2008 High)

*RES 3: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 2: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 1: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*PRICE: $1.2501 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2475 High Jan 31 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2425 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 3: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 4: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. Thursdays gains see focus back on 2018 highs.

Bulls look for a close above $1.2536 to add support to the case for a tests of

the LT weekly bear channel top. Support layers are building but bears need a

close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2156-1.2228 where the

21-DMA ($1.2228) is noted.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: O/S Studies Key Concern, Bulls Need Close Above Y110.18

*RES 4: Y110.67 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.76 High Jan 26

*PRICE: Y109.39 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.23 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 2: Y108.87 Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 3: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Low Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with

follow through lacking as support emerges on dips. Bears still need a close

below Y108.12 to reconfirm initial focus on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the

weekly triangle base are located. Bulls look for a close above Y110.18 to ease

bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to confirm focus on Y111.22-112.66 where

key DMAs and bear channel top are noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y136.62 Targets Y139.02-141.05

*RES 4: Y139.57 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 21 2015

*RES 2: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015

*RES 1: Y136.87 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y136.77 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 2: Y135.33 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31a 

*SUP 4: Y134.64 Hourly support Jan 30

*COMMENTARY: The Y133.53-134.15 support confirmed significance Tuesday. The

recovery has resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs and confirms overall bullish

focus on Y139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are located. Support layers

accumulating add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Y135.95 to

ease immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to return focus to

Y133.53-134.15 where 55 & 100-DMAs and bull channel base are found.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1331.2 Targets $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1352.3 - High Jan 29

*PRICE: $1346.0 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1334.1 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Following on from a lack of follow through on last week's 2018 high

bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back to the 21-DMA. Bears look

for a close below $1331.2 to shift initial focus to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial

resistance is noted at $1352.3 with bulls needing a close above to gain

breathing room and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $ $1391.8-1433.3.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Above $66.66 Targets $68.42-71.27 

*RES 4: $71.27 - Weekly bull channel top 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 2: $68.42 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 1: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25

*PRICE: $66.03 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $65.05 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 2: $64.63 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 3: $63.89 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $63.67 - Low Jan 31

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from dips back to the 21-DMA

with bullish focus back on the break of $66.66 needed to shift focus to

$68.42-71.27 where daily and weekly bull channel tops are situated. The

Bollinger top ($66.69) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below $64.63 to ease renewed bullish

pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]