MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7867 Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 2: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7913 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7889 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7801 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA was

aggressive although the failure to gain traction on the marginal break of

$0.7985 leaves the pair looking heavy. Bears look for a close below $0.7867 to

shift focus back to $0.7229-68 where the 200-DMA is located. Below $0.7729

shifts focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls need a close above $0.7989 to return

focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7328

*RES 4: $0.7525 - High July 28 

*RES 3: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 1: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7373 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7354 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 2: $0.7328 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 3: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7243 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 7mth highs lacked follow through Friday with bulls currently

focused on $0.7558 2017 highs. Daily studies are well place for gains. Bears

continue to look for a close below $0.7328 to ease bullish pressure and below

$0.7230 (Feb 12 low) to shift focus back to $0.7130-74 where 55 ($0.7173) & 200

($0.7163) DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0700

*RES 4: NZ$1.0860 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0851 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: NZ$1.0733 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The pair has remained capped ahead of the 200-DMA with 2018 & 6mth

lows continuing. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0700 to confirm a break of the

100-WMA (NZ$1.0703) and shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the LT rising TL is

located. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0808 to ease bearish pressure and

above NZ$1.0892 to hint at a move back to NZ$1.1073 and then 2017 highs

(NZ$1.1290).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On Y81.50

*RES 4: Y86.59 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 1: Y84.89 - High Feb 14

*PRICE: Y84.32 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.85 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 2: Y83.65 - 100-WMA

*SUP 3: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14

*SUP 4: Y82.56 - Low June 8

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 100-WMA continue as does a lack of downside follow

through. Bears take comfort in the Y84.89 level capping Thursday as bulls now

need a close above Y84.89 to gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus

back to Y86.59-87.50 where key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on

Y81.50 Apr 2017 monthly lows while Y84.89 caps. O/S studies remain a concern for

bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Correcting O/B Studies Weighing

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5870 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*PRICE: A$1.5680 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*SUP 4: A$1.5461 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has defined Feb so far with fresh

2018 & 2yr highs Wednesday suffering the same fate. Daily studies correcting

from O/B and the weekly Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need

a close below A$1.5601 to shift initial focus to A$1.5461-1.5546 where 21

(A$1.5561) & 55 (A$1.5461) are situated. Overall below the 100-DMA (A$1.5376)

targets 2018 lows (A$1.5152).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.004-751 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19

*PRICE: 89.185 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 2: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*SUP 3: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on 2018 & 3+ year lows Friday with bulls

taking comfort in the minor recovery. The 91.004-91.751 resistance region

remains key. Bulls need a close above 91.751 to shift initial focus to 92.640

and overall focus to 94.219-95.149. While 90.567 caps bears remain focused on

87.202-627 where the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are

situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 1: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*PRICE: $1.2409 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2368 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 2: $1.2330 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2299 Daily Bull channel base off Jan 10 low 

*SUP 4: $1.2277 Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 3yr highs lacked follow through with the pair rejected ahead

of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs

Friday. Bears need a close below $1.2368 to pressure $1.2203-1.2299 where the

bull channel base off 2018 lows is found. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to

gain breathing room and above $1.2515 to retain focus on the weekly bear channel

top.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14a 

*RES 1: Y106.91 Hourly resistance Feb 15

*PRICE: Y106.57 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 2: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirm significance last week supporting on

fresh 2018 lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for

a move back to Y99.08-101.15. Bulls look for a close above Y106.91 to gain

breathing room, above Y108.03 to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above

Y109.79 to confirm. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y106.20) remain

concerns for bears.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y132.37

*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 3: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 2: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.37 Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.26 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.59 2018 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 3: Y131.06 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.50 Low Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the Y130.50-131.59 support region with a

close below Y130.50 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and hint at a move back to

Y125.80-127.54. O/S daily studies are a concern for bears. Bulls still need a

close above Y132.37 to gain breathing room and above Y133.78 to confirm a break

of the 100-DMA (Y133.64) and hint at a shift higher in focus. Above the 21-DMA

(Y134.54) then targets 2018 highs.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Failure Concern For Bulls

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 1: $1351.3 - High Feb 19

*PRICE: $1345.7 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1338.9 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1336.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: $1309.5 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high is

less than ideal for bulls. Bulls need a close above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Daily studies remain well placed for gains. Bears now need a

close below $1336.8 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to

$1302.5-1309.5 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.94 Targets 2018 High 

*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 2: $62.93 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $62.33 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $61.88 - High Feb 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from very O/S are well placed for gains

following the bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA. The contract is gaining traction

above the 55-DMA ($61.06) adding to bullish confidence. Overall bulls look for a

close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close

below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to target the 200-DMA

($53.58).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]